There is a possibility of concluding a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine this spring, expert from Chernivtsi Marin Gherman stated in a public debate staged by IPN News Agency. According to him, U.S. President Donald Trump is eager to achieve peace in Ukraine as this is one of his election promises.
Ukrainian expert Marin Gherman considers that there are hopes for a truce in the spring of this year. He yet warned of the fragility of such a peace and the risks of it turning into a new conflict.
"I see Donald Trump hurrying, but I understand that it is an election promise that forces him to do something, even if what he will do will be a fatal mistake. A peace in Ukraine can take place with the acceptance by the U.S. of Putin's logic of the existence of spheres of influence, which worries me a lot and there are negative reactions in Ukraine," said Marin Gherman.
According to the expert, through telephone contact with the Russian president, Trump has taken the Kremlin leader out of international isolation, which could give Russia a favorable position in the negotiations, given the current advantages of the Russian army on the front.
"Putin has already come out of information isolation, once he was called by Donald Trump. I think an attempt to reach a truce in Ukraine will be made. Possibly this spring. At the same time, the negotiations will be fragile. Putin knows that he is currently in a tactical advantage over the U.S. administration because the situation on the front, from the perspective of the Russian army, is good. In addition, there is pressure from Trump's electorate for peace, possibly at any cost. That is why Putin will try to raise the stakes and demand favorable conditions for Russia, sacrificing the struggle of the Ukrainian people," explained Marin Gherman.
He warned that while a very fragile peace in Ukraine is possible, there are great uncertainties about turning this truce into a new conflict.
"A return to the logic of spheres of influence is possible, sacrificing Ukraine at this time, but at the international level it could generate a domino effect that is difficult to predict. In fact, military aggression is justified. Anyone can occupy anything, if you have a strong army and resist economically. At some point, you will be phoned by someone and you will legitimize your territorial seizures. It can be a blow to international law, as it happened after World War II. A very fragile peace is possible in Ukraine," concluded the expert.
The public debate entitled "Dangers of the new "spheres of influence" for Moldova, Ukraine and the EU" was staged as part of IPN’s project "Developing political culture through public debates". The project is supported by the German "Hanns Seidel" Foundation.
