"By constituting a comfortable majority to support the başkan during next year's election in the APG-Y, the başkan will be able to reach full potential. This will crown Irina Vlah's vertical of power. However, an important question remains. How resilient and how effective will this power structure be at solving non-political issues?…"

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Irina Vlah is entering the new season of Gagauz politics with a renewed team and a healthy political landscape, due to being re-elected for the second term as governor with an amazing 92 percent of the votes. In this new context, she should be able to easily solve the issues that seemed unsolvable a few months ago. However, real outcomes will be visible in the autumn.

The government’s new face

At the end of August, Irina Vlah presented the new composition of the Executive Committee, which she put forward to the People's Assembly for approval. 7 new people may join the executive, which represents a third of the 20 member-strong cabinet. The focus of the autonomous region was on the position of first deputy. Until recently, the position was held by Vadim Ceban, who left the office in order to become director of "Moldovagaz". Irina Vlah offered the vacant office to Anatolie Usatâi, former Secretary of State in the Ministry of Economy and Infrastructure in Pavel Filip's government. Additionally, a new department shall be created within the new executive - the Agency for attracting investments and promoting Gagauz-Yeri export.

The new composition of the executive is to be approved by the deputies of the People's Assembly of Gagauzia (APG-Y). It can hardly be assumed that the legislators will oppose and reject any applications. While during the spring the APG-Y majority was hostile towards the başkan, the situation changed due to the resettlement of power in Chisinau. The legislators have a single year left in office and most of them can't afford to be become Irina Vlah's opponents.

The "new realities" of the People's Assembly

In turn, the governor must establish what kind of relations it has with the legislators until the end of their terms. Speaker Vladimir Kîssa, the only PDM elected deputy, left the party about a month ago. He explained that the Parliament will shortly resume the examination of the "Gagauz bills", elaborated by the Parliament working group and the APG-Y, and his PDM membership could harm the promotion of the initiatives during the parliamentary hearings.

Kîssa literally said that "due to the new circumstances, my Democratic Party membership will have a negative impact on this process". However the main "new circumstances", acknowledged by Kîssa, are in Gagauzia. The APG-Y speaker's decision showed his willingness to ease the cooperation with the başkan by eliminating out of the equation the interests of the PDM and the interests of the former Democrat Nicolae Dudoglo, a fierce opponent of Irina Vlah.

The başkan called Kîssa's decision correct, yet delayed. Even if most of the legislators accept the new political realities, Vlah can afford to go ahead and appoint a new speaker from the ranks of her faithful followers, such as Grigorii Uzun, the deputy from Vulcanesti .

"Our people" in office

The general local elections set for October are an opportunity for Vlah to strengthen her political position. The başkan's followers have every chance to win all the 26 mayoral offices of the autonomy. The only exceptions may occur in two settlements. The mayor of the town of Vulcănești, Victor Petrioglu, is the representative of Renato Usatîi's party. He intends to win a new term and has a shot at winning. His opposition towards Vlah, which brought him closer to the local group of Democrats and undermined his authority, might weaken his position. Who becomes mayor of Vulcănești mostly depends on the başkan team’s ability to identify a worthy candidate. The other "weak link" is the village of Copceac, who's experienced mayor, former communist Oleg Garizan, has complicated relations with the Gagauz-Yeri governor and will try to remain the village head.

The general local elections in Gagauzia are an important event not only for Irina Vlah, but also for the Socialist Party. During the 2015 campaign, the socialists had a poor performance and obtaining only a few mayoral offices. The selection process of PSRM candidates for mayoral offices may be more rigorous this time around. In order to get better results, Irina Vlah could ask candidates who are loyal to her to participate in elections on behalf of PSRM. If successful, it will allow to use the Socialists, to some extent, as a lobbying instrument at the central government level. There are many reasons for this, ranging from the aforementioned working group draft laws to technical issues and even populist initiatives.

Sanitation of Gagauz-Yeri

As early as June, after the fall of the Plahotniuc regime, Irina Vlah understood how she would use her power. Then, she posted a video on social media, expressing her joy that "our country has finally escaped from pressure, threats and blackmail". “Together, we managed to clean up the Republic of Moldova. Gagauzia's time has come. We must dismiss all those who used their positions and functions to forcefully bring people to PDM meetings and events by threatening them with discharge", said Vlah in the video statement.

Shortly thereafter, the head of the State Chancellery in Comrat and the members of the Observatory Council of the Gagauz-Yeri Tele-Radio Company lost their jobs, while the director of the Comrat Regional Development Agency was temporarily suspended. Some of them were affiliated with the PDM, while others were connected to the public structures of former Democrat Nicolae Dudoglo. It can be assumed that the dismissal process will continue during this fall. However, there are no guarantees that this process will only target the old regime staff.

As a further matter, Irina Vlah intends to replace the brass of these structures with predictable people who would not represent "political surprises". It is unlikely that this issue will be delayed, thus new appointments will be made during the fall. First and foremost, the replacements will take place at the regional public television, which during the başkan elections, according to observers, actually promoted the idea of boycotting the ballot.

Other management personnel changes in the Gagauz-Yeri government structures could occur after the visit of Prime Minister Maia Sandu, announced for the end of August, but which will take place in September. This important event for the new political season will also contribute to the consolidation of the başkan's positions.

Currently, Irina Vlah's political success is based on her own prowess, a change from the 2015 situation, when she won the elections due to the strong support of Moscow and, in part, of the former PSRM leader Igor Dodon. By constituting a comfortable majority to support the başkan during next year's election in the APG-Y, the başkan will be able to reach full potential. This will crown Irina Vlah's vertical of power. However, an important question remains. How resilient and how effective will this power structure be at solving non-political issues?

Veaceslav Craciun