The supply of gas from the Caspian Sea region could have a major impact on the European energy market, on condition that gas is imported not only from Azerbaijan. At the same time, even if Iran has reserves that could significantly diminish the market share of the Russian company Gazprom, it needs massive investments during the next few years in gas production and in liquefying infrastructure and gas pipelines intended for exporting gas. Such conclusions are contained in an analytical report compiled by the Institute for Public Policy (IPP).
Researcher on probation at the IPP Ion Efros, in a news conference at IPN, said the orientation of Iran towards developing an energy-intensive industry and the possible opposition of the EU to depending more on a regime with which it has tense relations are factors that will prevent the entry of massive quantities of Iranian gas into the European energy market during the next 5-10 years. “Iran can become a global player on the gas market not sooner than in 2030. For the purpose, it will need at least 15 years to develop its capacities to support the production of natural liquefied gas so that this rises to 100 billion cubic meters a year,” he stated.
According to Ion Efros, the European importers could use the rich resources of Turkmenistan only if the legal status of the Caspian Sea is clarified and this allows for an arrangement that will not cause the opposition of Russia and Iran. “The way in which Europe could access Turkmen gas represents a combination of political relations, international law and attractive market signals,” he said.
The researcher also said that the use of the gas from the Caspian Sea region was intensely discussed during the last few years. “The confirmed reserves of the Caspian Sea will be enough for satisfying the needs of Europe during 16.2 years. If we take the reserves of Iran and of Turkmenistan together, the demand at the European level can be met during over 100 years,” stated Ion Efros.
According to him, Turkmenistan and Iran have the largest gas reserves and the greatest export potential compared with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan. The other states produce for domestic consumption and for exporting to the neighboring states. However, the use of the resources from the Caspian Sea is associated with the lack of access infrastructure and of the possibility of exporting by bypassing the Russian Federation.
