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Retrospective of a crisis. On the verge of collapse

The beginning of 2013 was marked by a deep political crisis that could have led to early parliamentary elections, while the current government would have experienced a crushing defeat in the polls. The politicians realized yet the risk and overcame the internal misunderstandings. As a result, at the end of November Moldova initialed the Association Agreement with the EU, with the European Commission recommending liberalizing the visa regime for Moldovans. The articles of the series “Retrospective of a crisis. On the verge of collapse” aim to anticipate how the events of 2013 will influence people’s options next year, which is an electoral one, and to formulate conclusions.

The Communist Party

On February 15, the Communist Party (PCRM) voted together with the Liberal-Democrats for liquidating the post of First Deputy Head of Parliament, which was occupied by the Democratic MP Vlad Plahotniuc at the beginning of this year. Later the Communists proposed dismissing Lib-Dem Vlad Filat from the post of Premier and Democrat Marian Lupu from the post of Head of Parliament. After the dismissal of the Filat Government on March 5, the leader of the PCRM Vladimir Voronin said that he carried out negotiations both with the Democrats and with the Liberal-Democrats for holding early parliamentary elections.

After Iurie Leanca was proposed for premiership and the new government was voted in on May 30, the Communist faction started to more often boycott the meetings of Parliament. The Communist MPs sometimes intentionally pushed other lawmakers or came to Parliament with megaphones. Protests against the Communists were mounted in Chisinau and in other settlements of the country. The Communists said they will stage a velvet revolution in order to remove the Pro-European coalition created by the PLDM, PDM and the Liberal reformers. The PCRM continued to insist on Moldova joining the Russia – Belarus – Kazakhstan Customs Union. The Communist MPs said the Association Agreement with the EU was negotiated in secret and demanded publishing it before the planned initiating at the Vilnius Eastern Partnership Summit.  

On November 23, the Communists brought together several thousand sympathizers in the center of Chisinau. They adopted a resolution in favor of the dismissal of the current government. During the Vilnius EaP Summit, where Moldova initialed the Association Agreement with the EU, the Communists held protests in front of the head office of the EU Delegation to Moldova.

This year so far, the Communists submitted three censure motions against the Government headed by Iurie Leanca. The first motion put forward in October, centered on the Government’s decision to concede the Chisinau International Airport and not to subscribe for shares of the additional issue of Banca de Economii (Savings Bank). As a result, the state lost the majority holding in this bank. The second motion, submitted also in October, was determined by the decision to set up six local offices of the Migration and Asylum Bureau on the Nistru River. In the third motion, of December, the Communists accused the Government of negotiating the Association Agreement with the EU in secret. None of the three motions gained a sufficient number of votes.

After the third censure motion was rejected, the Communists issued a statement to international organizations, asking intervening and stopping the liquidation of the Republic of Moldova. They argued that the party used up all the constitutional possibilities.

The Liberal Party

The Liberal leader Mihai Ghimpu said the Liberals were removed from power and thus are now in the opposition. The PL didn’t vote for Vlad Filat when he was put forward for premiership again, though they didn’t vote for his dismissal either, on March 5. They said they didn’t vote because the censure motion was proposed by the Communists. The Liberals challenged the repeated nomination of Vlad Filat for the post of Prime Minister in the Constitutional Court. On April 22, the Court ruled that the presidential decree nominating Filat for premiership was unconstitutional. Under the Court’s decision, Vlad Filat could no longer apply for this post.

On April 12, a group of seven Liberal MPs announced the creation of the Council for Reforming the Liberal Party, demanding that Dorin Chirtoaca should take over the party, while the PL should vote for Vlad Filat as Premier. The next day, the members of the Council were excluded from the party. Mihai Ghimpu said that Vlad Filat convinced them by different methods to go against the leader.

Mihai Ghimpu’s Liberals didn’t vote for the Government headed by Iurie Leanca.

The Party of Socialists  

The group of Socialists led by Igor Dodon on March 5 voted for the dismissal of the Filat Government. The Socialists didn’t take part in the negotiations on the formation of a new government and were against fielding Vlad Filat for premiership again. On May 30, the Socialists didn’t vote for the Leanca Government. In autumn, they supported all the three censure motions against the Leanca Government submitted by the PCRM.

Extraparliamentary parties

The People’s Movement “Antimafie” Party, more exactly its leader Sergiu Mocanu, made public the tragic hunting incident in the Domneasca Forest, which triggered the political crisis. Sergiu Mocanu continued to make accusations against Vlad Plahotniuc and Vlad Filat throughout the year. The politician said that the Government headed by Iurie Leanca is a shield for the two to continue their dishonest businesses.

The People’s Party of the Republic of Moldova, by its youth organization, promoted the message: “Stop the political games” at different public events. On April 1, in a flashmob meeting staged in the Great National Assembly Square, the young people improvised a poke game in front of the Government Building. The personages on the cards included politicians from the country and abroad. In May, the Political Bureau of the People’s Party of Moldova initiated a campaign to collect signatures for modifying the Constitution so that the President be elected by direct vote.

The leader of the National Liberal Party (PNL) Vitalia Pavlichenko, after the information about the hunting incident in the Domneasca Forest, said that this case showed that the government didn’t differ from the previous Communist government, which acted how it wanted. Before the formation of the new government was voted in, the PNL insisted on electing technocratic Premier, with powers to temper the rivalries between the parties that formed part of the Alliance for European Integration. The leader of the PNL said it will be good if the Premier had unionist options. Vitalia Pavlichenko also accused the PL, saying its behavior was selfish and didn’t contribute to the union of the democratic Romanian forces. Within the Union Council, the PNL staged a number of events by which it promoted Moldova’s union with Romania.

Other extra-parliamentary parties. After the law that increases the election threshold for parties from 4% to 6% was voted, a number of extra-parliamentary parties called on the Council of Europe to recommend the Moldovan administration to reduce the election threshold. The statement was signed by the Socialist People’s Party, Moldova’s Patriots Party and the Social-Democratic Party.

Petru Bogatu: Opposition played a minimal role in political crisis

Political analyst Petru Bogatu commented for IPN on the opposition’s actions this year, saying their role was minimal in the political crisis experienced by Moldova. All the serious problems faced by the government were committed by the parties that were in power. They tried in settle an account, profiting from the created situation and caused a problem that was very close to annihilating Moldova’s European integration chances.

The politicians wanted to get advantages and started to settle accounts. Things degenerated after the dismissal of Vlad Plahotniuc from the post of First Deputy Speaker and of the Government. These actions were illogical, dictated by the wish to take revenge, which brought the government to the edge of a precipice. The blame is borne by the political leaders - Marian Lupu and Vlad Plahotniuc (PDM), Vlad Filat (PLDM), and also Mihai Ghimpu (PL), who, instead of tempering things, stirred them up. The opposition played no important role in the crisis. By its mistakes, the government allowed the opposition to score a goal in the power’s goal. Following these mistakes, the rating of the opposition in polls started to improve.

Petru Bogatu does not believe that the opposition would have strengthened its position if things hadn’t degenerated and the political crises hadn’t existed in the first half of this year. The opposition’s problem is that it works like an anti-system power. “I refer to the left-wing opposition. It challenges not the power, but the country’s development course, which is abnormal. Moldova and Ukraine remained two countries where a political force chooses one direction, while another force chooses the opposite direction. This leads to the country’s dismemberment. Such things are serious and the situation in Ukraine shows where they can lead,” said the analyst.

Opposition’s chances in 2014 elections

Referring to another part of the opposition - the Socialists headed by Igor Dodon - Petru Bogatu said that the Socialists in fact copy the behavior of the PCRM, while Igor Dodon’s chances to enter Parliament after the next elections are minimal as the copy is always worse than the original.  

At the beginning, the PL continued the war with the former coalition partners. They are now probably in a crisis of ideas and are trying to articulate a right-wing discourse as an opposition party, said Petru Bogatu. This party moved to the opposition as a result of absurd calculations. Ghimpu said that it’s more convenient for the PL to be in the opposition than in power. This is absurd as such a strategy would have led to a catastrophe in Moldova. If the split hadn’t occurred in the party and the new Government hadn’t been formed, the initialing at the Vilnius summit wouldn’t have taken place. Sometimes, it seems that the Liberals speak as the Communists when they criticize the government.

The extra-parliamentary opposition has no relevance, considers the analyst. The polls show this, but this is evident without them as these parties do not have charismatic leaders and ideas that would help them to take a better position on the political arena.

In the elections of 2014, the PLDM, which is the first ‘violin’ in the government collation, will strengthen its positions. The PCRM will enter Parliament. We can forecast a new government or, if the democratic parties lose, we will have a new Communist government.

Government gives signals that it learned the lesson

As to the conclusions: the opposition in Moldova must be responsible in terms of the national interest, said Petru Bogatu. When the PCRM was in power, it was for Moldova’s integration into the EU. Now it is a party that creates a precipice in society. As to the current power, there are signs that certain lessons were learned. The fight against frauds and corruption must be continued, but not at the cost of a political suicide. One cannot set the country on fire in order to get rid of a rival. The politicians must be realistic and must be able to overcome resentments and to learn to govern in coalition. This surely does not mean that they must tolerate evil. Reforms are needed to heal the wounds of society.

Petru Bogatu is convinced that the progress on the path to European integration will improve things and will purity the political class.

Mariana Galben, IPN