How rational would it be to believe Donald Trump's promises regarding the end of the war in Ukraine? How the relationship between the Republic of Moldova and the U.S. will change with the establishment of a new administration in the U.S. and how the parliamentary elections next year will be influenced, explained the expert in political history Armand Goșu.
Armand Goșu has been teaching the political history of Russia and the USSR since 2004. He has a doctorate in the history of Russia, with a thesis on the foreign policy of the Russian Empire (Moscow, 1998). He is an associate professor at the University of Bucharest.
IPN: The outcome of the U.S. election will determine how the world will look next, as it will influence everything that happens in foreign policy worldwide. We know well that for Donald Trump, illegal migration was the ace up his sleeve, and for Kamala Harris, this was democratic freedoms. It seems that illegal migration is an issue that worries the Americans more. But let's refer to what Donald Trump promised in his election campaign: that he will make peace in Ukraine in 24 hours. How achievable is this promise and what relations does he have with Putin and Zelensky?
Armand Goșu: It would be naïve to believe Trump, and, in general, any politician in an election campaign. It is his style to express himself in this way, but we are at a moment when we do not know what his policy will be like. I wonder very seriously if he himself knows what his policy on Ukraine will be. We will find out this when the appointments to important positions begin. Some in the Trump administration are more favorable to Ukraine than those in the Biden administration were. Let's not rush to conclusions, but if Trump has some cards up his sleeve that we don't know, it is possible that he will fulfill that promise. Now, it depends on what kind of peace. Will he make peace through major concessions to Russia? I don't think so. Will the conflict freeze on the current line? Russia doesn't want it. We cannot rule out any scenario. We should be prepared for both negative and positive variants. We cannot rule out what Ukraine wants as it made too many sacrifices to make concessions now.
IPN: In what direction do you think the relationship between the U.S. and the EU will evolve?
Armand Goșu: I expect crises here. While the American election was taking place, the ruling coalition in Berlin collapsed, which means that there will be snap elections in Germany. The West is not feeling well; paradoxically, Central Europe - Poland, which knows what it wants, and Hungary, which knows what it wants, even if we may not like what it wants - feels better. Romania is also under the influence of the services, but, for better or worse, it is stable, and the Baltic countries are afraid of Russian tanks.
Russia is highly unlikely to escape U.S. sanctions. Trump is a trader, and Russia has nothing to offer in return.
IPN: Under the leadership of Donald Trump, can Russia get rid of many U.S. sanctions and thus recover its economy and military resources? What consequences will this have on the situation in the region?
Armand Goșu: He wants to achieve something. Of course, he will use the sanctions to negotiate with Russia; everyone will use them, but Russia has nothing to offer in return. If Putin says he is stepping down and repairing the costs of the war, then I can imagine a scenario in which the Americans, Westerners, Canadians and Japanese start lifting sanctions, but until then I doubt it. These are tales about the lifting of sanctions.
Moldova's fate for the American establishment is being discussed together with Ukraine.
IPN: How will the relationship between the U.S. and the Republic of Moldova change? Is there a risk that Chisinau will no longer benefit from such large support?
Armand Goșu: I wouldn't say so. I remind you that Mike Pompeo headed the American diplomatic service during the period when Vladimir Plahotniuc had to leave the country. I think that now the amount that will come from the U.S. could be increased because the Republic of Moldova occupies an important strategic position on the coast of Ukraine, but it depends a lot on how the U.S. wants to solve the problem of the war in Ukraine. Moldova's fate for the American establishment is being discussed together with Ukraine. The same is being discussed in Brussels.
IPN: As for the Transnistrian problem, what scenarios are emerging here? Will there be changes?
Armand Goșu: It is almost a miracle that Chisinau managed, during the war, to maintain control over this area. Things have evolved in the sense that the interest of the West and Romania increased in order not to see conflicts break out on the left side of the Nistru. The Americans have various tools to influence Putin to adopt a more constructive approach, but it also depends on Putin's willingness in this situation.
IPN: What impact will the new U.S. leadership have on the parliamentary elections in the Republic of Moldova?
Armand Goșu: The upcoming parliamentary elections will not divide the political arena according to pro- and anti-Trump, as some may imagine, but according to pro- and anti-Russia. For the first time, a presidential candidate manages to win the election by mobilizing only her segment of the electorate and not from the center, but, because of the war, the center has also turned to the European area, for fear of Russia.
