The inflation rate in the third quarter of this year was of 5.1%, a slight decrease compared with the previous quarter. It is within the variation interval of 1.5 percentage points around the target inflation of 5% set by the National Bank of Moldova (NBM). The data are contained in the report on inflation made public by the central bank on November 6, IPN reports.
“By implementing the target inflation regime, we first of all aim to achieve a lower and stable inflation rate, of 5%. We do this by influencing the rates on the market through the monetary policy,” said the governor of the NBM Dorin Dragutanu.
“The high probability of reaching an average inflation rate of 4.9% in 2014, compared with the inflation of 4.7% forecast 12 months ago, confirms the solidity of the National Bank’s model of forecasting the inflation and the correctness of the monetary policy measures taken during the last 24 months.”
According to Dorin Dragutanu, the prices this year will grow by 4.8% on average. The forecast for the next year is 4.6%, close to the central bank’s target inflation of 5%. “The real monetary conditions will remain stimulatory both by the real interest rate and by the real exchange rate. On the home market, the growth rate of food prices in July will slow down more markedly than projected. But the fuel prices will increase faster in the next quarter owing to the rise in the demand for coal and firewood,” stated the governor.
As to the depreciation of the leu against the euro and the U.S. dollar by 13.6%, Dorin Dragutanu said it is stimulated by the regional political, military and economic contexts. But the Russian ruble depreciated by 33%, while the Ukrainian hryvnia by 56%. “What we do not intend to do is to waste the foreign exchange reserves on combating what is happening in Russia and Ukraine,” he stated.
The governor also said that though the people consider that the interest rates on loans are high, these rates have halved since 2009, being among the lowest in Eastern Europe. In 2009, the annual average interest rate on loans per system was of 20.3% in lei and 12.5% in foreign currency. This September, the average rate was 10.97% in lei and 7.61% in foreign currency.
The NBM’s report on inflation is the fourth this year. It is available on the bank’s website.
