IPN Analysis: The year 2015, the 24th since the proclamation of Independence, is the first year the country has seen a decline on so many important directions. It can be proved eventually that the 24th year of Independence has also been the last year of European integration as a state policy and majority option, unless…
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Throughout its independence, Moldova braved numerous hurdles and challenges which have retarded its growth. The armed conflict on the Nistru and its enduring consequences is just one telling example. However the decline we've seen over the past year seems to be the steepest and producing the most dramatic effects than any other setback before. It's because the losses should be measured not by the direct costs but first of all by the opportunities that have been missed despite unprecedentedly favorable conditions. Conditions which are, too, almost irreversibly gone and very hard to recover.

The Heist of the Century as a symbol and manifestation of the decline

Generally, the 2014-2015 decline has manifested itself through the “heist of the century”, when by various estimations one billion dollars or euros was stolen from the banking system, which means roughly a half of the country's budget. While the actual figure can differ, what's certain is the act of the rip-off itself, blatant and cynical, and in amounts about which one foreign ambassador said he could not understand “how can one steal so much from a country so small?” The big problem is not just and not so much the unprecedentedly large amount of the heist, but rather the direct and indirect effects that it produced or revealed. Effects that concern virtually all the aspects of societal life in Moldova.

Economically, the country has missed an important part of the means to support the economy and businesses, in particular in terms of investment and major constructions, which means putting the brakes on development processes for an indefinite period of time. Higher energy tariffs and consequently higher domestic production costs will hit the businesses hard, including managers and specialists. The heist has strained Moldova's relations with its development partners, who suspended direct funding, sending a signal to potential investors. Currently, the list of this kind of consequences is far from being complete, and the losses and missed opportunities are growing exponentially. Much of them will never be recovered again.

Socially, this sends us again to a chain reaction of rising prices and general impoverishment, incomparably deeper than any other in the last few years. And this is fertile ground for ample protest movements and destabilization, which are incompatible with growth, social cohesion, prosperity and advancement on the path of European integration. The list here is incomplete as well, and the ultimate negative effects yet impossible to fathom.

Politically, “the heist of the century” marked the climax of a process of rendering the state institutions dysfunctional, which for this reason proved incapable of protecting the private and public money, as well as the people's interests as a whole, from the biggest “raider attack” in the country's history, after certain individuals or narrow groups had practiced with hundreds and thousands of smaller raids over the years. The one to blame is the political class, who fought and eventually obtained – with an insistence that deserved nobler goals – the subduing of the governmental institutions to some narrow party, or group, or perhaps even individual interests. In these circumstances, there are reasonable grounds to suspect the Moldovan political elite of sheer inability to administer state affairs and of complicity in robbing the country.

Morally, Moldovan society received a blow which is also without precedent. What happened in the case of the “heist of the century” reflects dangerous levels of moral decay within a considerable part of the elites, the ones that have the role of shaping attitudes, including moral ones. Society has been pushed into a state of moral depression, from where it finds it increasingly difficult to oppose negative mental and behavioral influences, which in better times are properly and unequivocally rated on the good-evil scale. It proved safer at a certain point to steal billions and go unpunished than to take a €100 bribe. It doesn't matter within this perverted logic that both were once rated as evil. Not one single resignation, not even a “resignation of honor” ensued after a crime of such proportions, which we can safely assume involved people on all levels of government, either directly or indirectly, perpetrators and onlookers. It's either that we no longer have anyone to fire corrupt officials and punish criminals, or we have no reserves of honor left in Moldova, twenty-four years into Independence. And all these happen as the official discourse cynically goes on trumpeting “the rule of law”, “the interests of the people” and “European values”…

As regards European integration, Moldova has lost a lot, if not everything. Pursuing this path, we must start from the beginning or even behind the zero mark. Our European partners suspended funding on reasonable suspicions that some of the stolen money could have been taken directly or indirectly from the generous assistance provided by them in the last few years. But even greater is the loss of trust which would be recovered far slower than the funding itself. Once voiced for the first time by a key figure of the European system, Council of Europe Secretary General Thorbjorn Jagland, the descriptions “captured state”, “state in the hands of oligarchs” or “[country] on the brink” will remain for a long time to characterize Moldova in the most official manner, pushing the country further away from a candidate status, not to mention EU membership. Such prospects have long since faded, compared to two or three years ago and especially since the inception of European integration as a state policy in 2009.

We want to believe…

We would very much want to believe prime minister Valeriu Strelets when he says that with the new Cabinet installed, Moldova has moved a small step away from the brink; that the first measures announced to strengthen the financial and banking system, to restore the relationship with the IMF, to reanimate the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict, to fix the strains between Chisinau and Comrat, and so on, will serve this purpose. But these are yet mere statements of good intent, being rather far from Thorbjorn Jagland's recommendations that would return the captured state to its citizens. These recommendations include: “fix the banks”, “immediately begin purging corrupt officials from public bodies”; “the dozens of judges — some very high-profile — who have been accused of egregiously abusing their power should be investigated. Law enforcement agencies must also do everything they can to arrest the individuals responsible for the massive bank fraud.”

The situation that raises concern among so many European partners has been built for years through deliberate actions by the Moldovan political elite, and we should expect that playing the tape back will be a painful and lengthy process, if at all possible.

…but realities say different

This dose of pessimism is inspired by other, parallel signals showed by the (not so) new government. Keeping the same people in ministries and governmental agencies, in addition to often making rather bizarre and controversial appointments, raises again reasonable doubts about the government's capacity and political will to change things radically and eventually return the state to its rightful owners, the people. On the contrary, the anti-reforms proposed on the first days of the new Cabinet, at the Education Ministry for example, indicates an even greater and deeper subduing of the state institutions to narrow interests. From the very fist days, the reform conducted with so much effort in education is eliminated by the system, just like its promoter Maia Sandu was eliminated earlier.

A European security threat

Twenty-four years into independence, Moldova is perceived as a potential European security threat, with the captured state status being one of the reasons. Never before in its history has it received such a rating. This is why, as said earlier, this is the Year of Decline which, oddly enough, occurs amid the most favorable political, financial, regional and geopolitical conditions the Republic of Moldova has ever seen. This is why we can't go any lower, because lower would imminently means destroying the European idea as a state policy and majority option.

Valeriu Vasilica, IPN