The probability for the October 30 presidential elections to have one round of voting is very low. The Socialists’ candidate Igor Dodon and the common candidate of the center-right Maia Sandu are likely to compete in the runoff elections, shows the Public Opinion Barometer commissioned by the Institute for Public Policy (IPP). The poll results were presented in a news conference at IPN on October 20.
According to the poll, over 70% of those polled said they would vote in the presidential elections. Of these, 27% would vote for Igor Dodon, while 9.3% for Maia Sandu. The candidate of the Party “Platform Dignity and Truth” Andrei Nastase (who meanwhile withdrew from the race for the presidency in favor of Maia Sandu, e.n.) would gain 8.1%, while the Democratic Party’s candidate Marian Lupu 7.5%.
IPP executive director Arcadie Barbarosie said the poll was carried out before Maia Sandu was nominated as the common candidate of the Party “Action and Solidary”, the Party “Platform Dignity and Truth” and the Liberal Democratic Party. Therefore, the results are interpretable. However, about 2/3 of the respondents who said they would elect Andrei Nastase President declared their intention to support Maia Sandu.
The experts who analyzed the poll results consider the October 30 presidential elections will have a runoff vote, while Igor Dodon will not manage to win the elections by the first round, as he intends. The poll also measured the voting intention of the respondents in case of different pairs of candidates. The highest voter turnout will be if the runoff elections involve Dodon and Sandu. Some 41% of those surveyed would vote for Dodon, while 24% for Sandu. The other respondents either don’t know who to vote for or do not intend to go and vote. If the runoff involves Dodon and Lupu, the result would be 41%:13%.
Igor Dodon, Renato Usatyi (leader of “Our Party”) and Maia Sandu are the most trusted Moldovan political personalities. Mihai Ghimpu (leader of Liberal Party) and Vlad Plahotniuc (first deputy chairman of Democratic Party) are the least trusted politicians. The experts said that for the first time Vlad Plahotniuc is outstripped by another politician by the level of distrust.
The poll was conducted between October 6 and 16 and covered a sample of 1,109 people from 82 communities. The margin of sampling error is 2.9%. The carrying out of the Public Opinion Barometer is supported financially by Soros Foundation Moldova.
