The means used by the Russian Federation in Ukraine were tested in Moldova first. What Russia wants is to weaken Ukraine and to show that this is a failed country, while Russia, with its post-conflict post-hot phase peacekeeping mission, has the leverage in its hands, director of the Association for Participatory Democracy (ADEPT) Igor Botan said in an interview for Radio Free Europe, IPN reports.

The analyst believes that the Ukrainian authorities will not accept the federalization idea. “I believe that Ukraine, if it is supported by the United States and the European Union, will probably strengthen the border along Lugansk and Donetsk so that this territory is perceived somehow. Crimea is regarded as an annexed territory, while this territory – as uncontrolled territory. But I don’t think that Ukraine will enter this game because it is very dangerous,” stated Igor Botan.

As to the fact that there are voices in Moldova, which insist on federalization, the analyst said that a part of the Moldovans want the country to follow a road that would be fully favorable to Russia.

According to Igor Botan, if Moldova is federalized, the taking of decisions in Chisinau will be blocked or influenced by the center, eventually by subjects from Comrat and Tiraspol. The foreign policy will be fully under the control of these possible two subjects, coordinated with Moscow. “We know these things. There is nothing new. We saw how the referendum in Gagauzia was held, in what very interesting context. Those who speak about plebiscites and federalization must ask themselves how many referendums were held for example in the Soviet Union or in Russia. They will discover something very interesting,” said the director of ADEPT.

He added that if Tiraspol was ready for Moldova’s federalization, this would become known in the talks in the 5+2 format. For now the position of Tiraspol is very inflexible: no discussions on Basket III, which refers to the political settlement of the conflict.