“For the Republic of Moldova, Georgia’s experience serves as a clear warning. Russia uses various tactics to prevent countries from the former Soviet space from moving closer to the European Union. If the citizens of the Republic of Moldova do not take concrete and decisive measures to ensure their European path, in particular through an overwhelming vote in the referendum on European accession, we risk walking into the same traps set by Russian influence in the region. It goes to the adoption of the Russian-inspired law on foreign agents, which is spreading like a plague not only in Georgia, but also in other European states, such as Serbia, Turkey, Kyrgyzstan or Bosnia and Herzegovina. It risks reaching Moldova as well, if we allow pro-Russian actors of influence to come to power...”
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We still run the risk that one day, the majority of citizens will ardently want the European integration, and an eventual Government of the Republic of Moldova, resulting from the parliamentary elections of the summer of 2025, will not respect the will of the citizens, but will sabotage the road to the European Union by applying, for example, legislation that can harm the interest of the citizen and that can distance us from our ideal, which can destroy the status of a candidate country for the European Union and prolong accession negotiations indefinitely. See the example of Serbia, which has been a candidate for membership of the European Union for 12 years, mainly because of Russian influence.

Georgia’s struggle with the draft law on “foreign agents” highlights broader issues related to democratic backsliding and the deeply entangled political situation in the wider geopolitics of the region, significantly influenced by Russia’s hybrid war in the region, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and also the geopolitical war waged by the Russian Federation. The law is seen as a threat to civil society and democratic principles, provoking widespread protests and condemnation by the international community. Here, the European Union should have taken much more proactive measures to condemn the situation not only through statements because Russia has already managed to deal a significant blow to the credibility of the EU’s enlargement policy.

If we want the Republic of Moldova not to end up witnessing the same scenario as Georgia, namely to be in danger of losing its status as a candidate country for accession to the European Union, the path of integration into the community needs to become an irreversible one.

Constitutional landmarks

For this irreversibility of the European course to materialize, the national objective of European accession must be strengthened in the Constitution of the Republic of Moldova.

In 2018, Georgia amended its constitution to include explicit provisions on its aspirations towards the European Union and NATO. Article 78 of the Georgian Constitution states the following:

"The constitutional bodies shall take all the measures, within the limits of their power, to ensure the full integration of Georgia into the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.”

If the referendum on EU accession is successful, the integration into the European Union will become a strategic objective of the Republic of Moldova and, also, the following two issues will be added:

(1) The accession of the Republic of Moldova to the founding treaties of the European Union, as well as to the acts of revision of these treaties shall be established by the Parliament by means of an organic law.

(2) Following the accession, the provisions of the founding treaties of the European Union, as well as other binding community regulations, take precedence over any contradictory provisions of domestic laws, under the conditions set out in the Treaty of Accession.

The Republic of Moldova seems to learn from the case study of Georgia, but also of Ukraine, because Kiev also has similar provisions in the constitution. Although the situation is now extremely complicated in Tbilisi, and the protests aimed at stopping the new legislation directed against civil society continue, we still do not know how the Constitutional Court will rule on the compatibility between the law on foreign agents and Article 78 of the Georgian Constitution. It remains to be seen, but it is obvious that the constitutional bodies must have the backbone in the situation when the constitutional incompatibility is obvious.

However, in addition to understanding the constitutional changes, correct and constant informing of the citizens about the benefits and challenges of European integration is essential. Increasing public awareness will reduce vulnerability to Russian disinformation and propaganda. Here, the “Citizens for Europe” initiative launched on June 7, 2024 comes to lend a hand to the government in Chisinau, and each of us can lend a hand to the realization of the ideal of joining the European area of values.

Georgia - the next target after Ukraine

In the midst of these developments, the Georgian people are in the situation of being the next victim, Georgia being now positioned right on the front line of this geopolitical struggle, alongside the Republic of Moldova, just behind the Ukrainians.

The recent approval of Georgia’s “foreign agents” bill has sparked significant protests and criticism both domestically and internationally. President Salome Zourabishvili vetoed the bill and she represents the vast majority of the Georgian people who oppose the law. As expected, the ruling Georgian Dream party, generally considered to be aligned with the interests of the Kremlin and informally led by oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvilli, overcame this veto vote expressed by the Georgian citizens by the vote of the parliamentary majority. The law is expected to come into force soon.

The situation in Georgia is becoming increasingly volatile as the parliamentary elections, scheduled very close to the presidential election and the referendum in Moldova, on October 26, 2024, approach. These elections are the first since Georgia obtained the EU candidate status in December 2023, but this success can be compromised.

The Rose Revolution of 2003 set the framework for Georgia’s democratic government, relinquishing the Soviet legacy and turning the face firmly to the West. However, much has changed since then, with the establishment of the Georgian Dream. And now, the upcoming elections are perceived by many as a mere formality, rather than a genuine democratic process.

The deepening political crisis and erosion of civil liberties have led to fears that Georgia could face a revolution this fall. If the current course continues, Georgia risks becoming another Belarus, with a repressive regime that stifles dissidence and undermines democratic institutions. Here we can refer in particular to the continuing deterioration of Belarusian democracy, especially following the events after the 2020 presidential election, which Alexander Lukashenko is believed to have won fraudulently and undemocratically.

Instead of conclusions

For the Republic of Moldova, Georgia’s experience serves as a clear warning. Russia uses various tactics to prevent countries from the former Soviet space from moving closer to the European Union. If the citizens of the Republic of Moldova do not take concrete and decisive measures to ensure their European path, in particular through an overwhelming vote in the referendum on European accession, we risk walking into the same traps set by Russian influence in the region. It goes to the adoption of the Russian-inspired law on foreign agents, which is spreading like a plague not only in Georgia, but also in other European states, such as Serbia, Turkey, Kyrgyzstan or Bosnia and Herzegovina. It risks reaching Moldova as well, if we allow pro-Russian actors of influence to come to power.

For the Republic of Moldova to avoid the trap in which Georgia fell and to maintain its status as a candidate country for EU membership, but also to advance rapidly on its pro-European path, in order to become a full EU member, it is essential that Chisinau adopts a clear and irreversible European integration strategy. This requires constitutional commitment through the validation of the referendum, consistent internal reforms, especially in the field of justice and consistent diplomatic efforts aimed at convincing all the EU member states that our country is indeed a deeply European state. Only through these measures, Moldova can ensure a stable and prosperous European future, safe from external destabilizing influences from the Russian Federation.