Last week was marked by a number of unusual events regarding the state of affairs in the energy sector. As a result, society witnessed an increase in gas charges, smaller gas reserves for the cold period of the year, dismissals of senior officials, with the possibility of declaring a state of emergency in the energy sector, but also promises that the situation will remain under control and, at least, there will be no interruptions in the supply of gas and electricity. The picture described is sufficiently worrying, but incomplete because it does not include the uncertain situation regarding the Transnistrian region, which, starting with the New Year, can find itself without the traditional Russian gas that Gazprom provided for decades, practically without payment. What can and cannot happen in the absence of Russian gas and what needs to be done for the population to be more prepared and protected in these situations were among the issues discussed by the experts invited to IPN’s public debate "Gas for the Transnistrian region as a national security issue".
The permanent expert of IPN’s project Igor Boţan said that national security is defined from the perspective of the interests and position that a nation has in relation to an international force. Therefore, the notion of national security must be regarded through the angle of the national interests, threats and weaknesses that can derive from inside, but especially from outside. A complex view about the dimensions of security includes the military, political, economic, social, environmental aspects.
"National security refers exclusively to the stability of social order, listing among the key dangers to which it insistently refers those that threaten the sovereignty of the state. If we talk about social security, it refers to the protection of the vital interests of the person and the relations between social groups. Economic security can be defined as a state of the economy and state institutions which ensures guaranteed protection of the national interests, the general socially oriented development of the state, sufficient military potential," explained the expert.
According to him, a humanitarian catastrophe is the occurrence of an event with tragic consequences for the life and existence of the population in a certain area, region or country. At the same time, the state of emergency is a government declaration that can modify the normal functioning of particular legislative, executive or judicial institutions. "The state of emergency is a set of political, economic, social and public order maintenance measures, which are provisionally established in some localities or throughout the country," said Igor Boţan. The expert also said that the state of emergency is declared by Parliament decision and, depending on the evolution of the situation, the legislature can extend the duration of the state of emergency or siege, extend or restrict the scope of the state of emergency.
Sergiu Tofilat, an expert in energy security, admitted that there can be a number of scenarios in relation to the Transnistrian region, including the total interruption in the supply of free gas to the left bank of the Nistru for a period - a month or two. The delivery could be continued partially, in smaller volumes, so that there will be gas only for household consumers, not for the Kuchurgan Power Plant so that it would not be able to produce energy for the right bank. Likewise, it is possible that the supply will be continued in the same volume – 5.7 million cubic meters per day.
"We cannot predict what will happen. The decision on the delivery of gas for free to the left bank of the Nistru by Gazprom can be taken by only one person – Vladimir Putin - because Gazprom does not collect money for this gas. It is actually a subsidy from the Kremlin to maintain this separatist regime on the left bank of the Nistru and is strictly a political decision. For this reason, I’m not going to start making forecasts, but we need to follow what Gazprom will do, whether it received instructions to continue the supply or not," said Sergiu Tofilat.
In his opinion, purely technically there are two corridors through which the supply can be continued. One is through Ukraine, and the second is through Turkey. The transit through Ukraine is unlikely to continue after the New Year, although this option is not completely excluded. "The Ukrainian side has made it very clear that they will not sign any agreement with the Russian side. After Putin's military aggression against Ukraine began, Ukraine passed a law banning the signing of any contracts with Russian firms. Respectively, there will be no contracts with Gazprom. President Zelensky noted that those who want to receive Russian can come to the Russia-Ukraine border and Ukraine will be ready to transport the gas of these European traders to its territory. But Tiraspol does not have a license and does not have the money to pay for transit. Moldovagaz is not allowed to use the gas pipelines with Gazprom as a shareholder. Through Ukraine, the chances are slim," explained the energy security expert.
Sergiu Tofilat said that through Turkey there are two pipelines coming from the Russian Federation. The first is Blue Stream that passes through Turkish networks, reaches Bulgaria through Strandzha 1 point. There is also the recently built Turcstream gas pipeline, which is practically entirely used to supply gas to Serbia and Hungary. There is not much free space there and gas comes from Turkey to Bulgaria through Strandzha 2 point.
"If we consider the public sources, there are not many free capacities in Strandzha 2. Strandzha 1 – here you go, no problem. From the Bulgaria-Turkey border you can bring gas through the trans-Balkan gas pipeline that works in reverse mode. Technically, the Russian Federation, Gazprom, can bring gas to the Transnistrian region through Turkey. Now, in order to use this gas pipeline, Gazprom must participate in the tender contest for the reservation of capacities. So, you have to pay for using them. The tender contest to use the gas pipelines for January will be held on December 16. This means that if Gazprom does not pay for the reservation of these gas pipelines on December 16, there is a very high probability that Moscow wants to stop the transit of Russian gas to the Transnistrian region," stated the expert.
Mihai Isac, a foreign policy pundit, believes that the cessation of gas supplies at least for a period of time is a rather likely scenario aimed at exerting pressure on the official Chisinau. "We must understand that these days Transnistria plays exactly the role for which it was designed, namely blocking the European path of the Republic of Moldova, blocking the relations between the Republic of Moldova and the West. We disregard the fact that, for over three decades, no measures have been taken to facilitate the reintegration of the region into the constitutional space and this allows Russia to achieve its goals," stated Mihai Isac.
According to him, it is not clear why the Moldovan authorities did not use this period, at least the period since the start of the large-scale illegal invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, to start implementing measures that would somehow force the separatist regime to come to the negotiating table. In his opinion, over two years were lost because it was the period during which the Moldovan authorities benefited from a comfortable majority in Parliament, which enabled taking measures in this regard.
“If we look at what happened these days in Syria, we see that Vladimir Putin and the Russian Federation have no regrets for their partners, for those who believed in their protection. The regime of Bashar al-Assad was sacrificed just as the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh were sacrificed. We see that the inhabitants of the region under Russian military occupation are only pawns in the Kremlin's plans regarding the Republic of Moldova. At the same time, we already see very harsh statements from the leaders in Tiraspol. We see what is written on Telegram channels in the region. The population is already trained to blame the Republic of Moldova for any worsening of conditions, especially in winter," said the foreign policy pundit.
According to Mihai Isac, the way the Moldovan authorities acted seems a little strange because the statements made in the last few days there are higher in number than the statements made throughout the year. The fact that this situation was reached is at least difficult to explain for analysts, for the general public. “All year round, including during the election campaign, we heard how "we got rid of any form of major energy dependence on the Russian Federation", how, with the help of foreign partners, we will be able to get through this winter as well," said Mihai Isac.
The public debate entitled "Gas for the Transnistrian region as a national security issue" was staged as part of the series of debates "Developing political culture through public debates". IPN Agency implements this project with support from the German Hanns Seidel Foundation.
