IPN analysis: Who will be the next Bashkan (Governor) of Gagauzia? The inhabitants of the region will try to answer this question on March 22. The criteria according to which the people of Gagauzia will choose the winner can be already formulated.
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Who will be the next Bashkan of Gagauzia? We can answer this question this way: this will be a charismatic leader with a team of professionals and with large media and financial resources. However, these criteria are universal components of the formula of victory practically in any election. But in the Gagauz context, such criteria cannot tell us much because half of the candidates for the post of Bashkan meet these conditions. In order to avoid stereotypical reasons and mistaken conclusions, any forecast about the result of the campaign for occupying the post of head of the region must derive both from the typical features of the Gagauz politics in general and from the current situation in particular.
Party of independents
The main particularity of the election campaigns in the Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia, either the elections in the People’s Assembly or for the Bashkan or even for the local administration, is the critical attitude of the voters towards the persons promoted by parties. This legality could have been seen for many years in a row in the results of practically all the elections as these were mainly won by independent candidates. The political events in Gagauzia are different from those in any district of Moldova. Own processes take place in the region, with their own history, logic and course, while the participation in these elections of forces from outside is regarded with visible dissatisfaction.
At a certain stage, the Moldovan political forces took into account this particularity when working out their strategies. That’s why it is not something unordinary to see all the candidates for the post of Bashkan running as independents. Among those who will try to separate them from parties are the member of the Democratic Party Nikolai Dudoglo, Communist Irina Vlah, and one of the leaders of the Party of Regions Valery Ianioglo. Communist Oleg Garizan hasn’t made up his mind yet. The previous days, the Ciadar-Lunga district committee of the Party of Communists (PCRM) offered him to run in the elections, as an independent candidate of course.
To be correct, we will say that Dudoglo and Ianioglo suspended their membership in parties for the period of the elections, while Vlah has recently dissociated herself from the PCRM, refusing to form part of the Communist parliamentary group. This way or another, it’s not clear who is the most naive in this situation: the voters who are ready to believe in the real suspension of the status of party membership or the representatives of the parties, who count on the fact that the people will believe in their independence.
Stakes of Moscow and Ankara
An important argument in the national politics can be the position of the leaders or of the European bodies (many statements are made in the EU about the expectation of a pro-European government of the majority), but in Gagauzia the role of political authorities is played by Russia and Turkey.
The official position of these countries during the elections in Gagauzia is surely not perceived. But, based on the indirect confessions, we can deduce that some of the political circles or some figures of the Russian or Turkish business have their preferences in the Gagauz politics.
The interests of the mentioned states in Gagauzia are rather diverse. They can pursue the goal of obtaining ‘favors’ in business projects or the possibility of exerting influence on the Moldovan politics through the autonomous unit and even of offering support in promoting cultural and religious values. The foreign partners assess the capacities of each candidate to solve these matters differently and thus determine the level of this support in a different way. If, for example, each of the candidates for the post of Bashkan can guarantee the security of investments, to deal with such a delicate issue as the permission to build a mosque – and a part of the Orthodox clerics of the region indeed share such fears – the authorities of Gagauzia need special loyalty and ‘ability to negotiate’.
Formuzal’s word
In all the presidential elections in which the incumbent leader of the region does not take part, his position plays an important political role. If the leaving chief benefits from prestige, his public support will become a great trump card for any of the candidates. And vice versa, if his name is associated with only evil things, any relationship with some of the participants in the elections could lead to a fatal result.
The latest closed sociological polls carried out in Gagauzia show that the current leader of the region still has a good rating. Though Mihail Formuzal is not a head of state, he was elected by the direct vote of the people of the region and this means that each of the candidates will encounter serious difficulties on the way to victory if they confront the incumbent Bashkan and criticize his work during the last eight years in office.
Thus, Mihail Formuzal can become an important personage of these elections. In one of his last interviews, he said he will start to grow walnut trees after he completes his term in office. Such plans would rather not make him resort to intense political actions and make certain statements during the election campaign. If Formuzal does not yet consider his political career over, his call will be heard and many of the Gagauz voters will listen to him.
Dodon’s word
One year ago only, it was hard to imagine that the Party of Socialists (PSRM) will have influence on the Bashkan elections in Gagauzia. But Igor Dodon’s party covered in the period an intense political way and now the PSRM occupies an important place not only in the Moldovan politics, but also in the politics of Gagauzia. The 57% of the votes won in the parliamentary elections on the territory of Gagauzia give this party essential power in the regional politics. Surely this fact will have a say in the Bashkan elections.
The Socialists promised to make known the name of their candidate next week. Given its persisting popularity, this is for now the only party that could field a party candidate. But it can happen than Igor Dodon will not make himself conspicuous and will bank on a formally independent candidate. We should also not exclude the fact that this party can offer support to the former Communist Irina Vlah. The only obstacle in this respect can be the position of the administration of the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia, which made a considerable contribution to the PSRM’s victory in the region and now, based on the political agreements reached before the November 30 elections, will insist on supporting its own candidate. However, the deputies of the region haven’t yet agreed on such a candidate.
People’s choice
It is expected that the negotiations and consultations held behind the scenes by the participants in the electoral race and by all the ‘interested sides’ will end next week. The final stakes will be made public and all the politicians will come out before the voters. During two months the people will assess the merits and faults of the candidates.
The approximate ideal for an average Gagauz voter looks now like this: a leader who will be really independent from the parties from Chisinau on the cooperation with whom Moscow counts and to whom Turkey is ready to provide financial assistance, and whom the current administration of the region considers a guarantee for continuing its course.
Certainly there are slim chances for all these factors to be met in one candidate. But the larger the number of components of this formula are found in a candidate, the greater will be his chances of winning the elections.
Veaceslav Craciun, IPN
