The energy crisis in the eastern region of the Republic of Moldova is by far the hottest and most impactful topic of this period, a topic that requires a deep, multilateral and permanent analysis. The public space already contains a very wide spectrum of views on the possible consequences of the crisis. In particular, the idea that it can end with "a historic chance for the Republic of Moldova to reintegrate the country" is promoted. Another point of view, on the contrary, qualifies this crisis as "a bomb planned to blow up the state of affairs in the whole of the Republic of Moldova, in the nearest time”. Which of these two consequences is more feasible and whether they are feasible in general were among the subjects discussed by the experts invited to IPN’s public debate "Fish tail" of the crisis in the eastern region of Moldova.”
The permanent expert of IPN’s project Igor Boţan said that the notion of "fish tail" in this case has a figurative meaning with two versions. The first version says that it is an action, a narrative with an unconvincing, unclear ending. That is an action whose finish is below the expectations that it can justify the beginning. The second version is related to the proverb that "the fish rots from the head, but it is cleaned from the tail". And this version should also be examined when analyzing the events regarding the crisis in the Transnistrian region and, by ricochet, on the right bank of the Nistru.
According to the expert, the notion of "humanitarian crisis" is an event with serious consequences for the life and existence of the population in a particular area, region or country. Referring to the country's reintegration, Igor Boţan said that, in the case of the Republic of Moldova, this represents the efforts of the country's authorities to overcome the effects of separatism.
"The legal framework for the country's reintegration is found in the Constitution of the Republic of Moldova. Under the constitutional provisions, the Republic of Moldova is a sovereign and independent, unitary and indivisible state, and the territory of the Republic of Moldova is inalienable. Another article says that the localities on the left bank of the Nistru can be granted special forms and conditions of autonomy in accordance with the special status adopted by organic law," said Igor Boțan.
Former minister of energy Victor Parlicov, an expert in energy security, said that on the right side of the Nistru there is no humanitarian crisis – there is gas, there is electricity, there is heat. And, even if due to the changes that occurred in the supply of gas to the left bank of the Nistru and, as a result, electricity charges rose, there can be no humanitarian crisis on the right bank.
On the left bank of the Nistru, in his opinion, this crisis is induced. It is artificially created and not only by the authorities of the Russian Federation, but also with the help of the self-styled authorities of the Transnistrian region. According to the expert, it was known long before about the risk of an interruption in gas supplies. But the administration on the left bank of the Nistru preferred not to seriously prepare for this potential crisis. Coal reserves in the region are limited, as are the gas reserves that will be sufficient for a short period of time.
Victor Parlicov considers that the current power cuts in the region are an artificial matter because there is the capacity to produce the necessary volumes of power on the left bank of the Nistru. Respectively, they artificially resort to power cuts even if the de facto administration knows very well that the locals have no other source to heat themselves.
"What was the need to turn off the electricity? What was the need to subject these people to the ordeal of freezing? Okay, you don't have gas because you don't want to pay for it, but why don't you give electricity to the people? What is the need to keep the people in the cold and freeze them?", asked the ex-minister of energy.
"Under these circumstances, the only hypothesis or conclusion that explains this behavior is that the so-called authorities in Tiraspol look at this situation as at one of the steps in a pre-established scenario in which they must first create the illusion of a humanitarian crisis, an image showing that the people freeze, suffer, and then Russia comes in the role of the savior, essentially ignoring the fact that Gazprom created this crisis,” he stated.
Former MP Alexandr Slusari, a member of the Board of Energocom SA, believes that everything that happens in the Transnistrian region is part of the Kremlin's scenario. And in this case, in his opinion, there is no alliance between the Kremlin and Tiraspol as it is the Kremlin that is now making a direct economic attack against the right bank of the Nistru and Tiraspol, being a vassal, simply fulfils the order that comes from the Kremlin.
"The Transnistrian region is nothing but a collateral victim, in the short term, of this attack. The Kremlin pursues a number of goals. The main target is the Republic of Moldova in an election year, where it is necessary to provoke an economic collapse, to influence it through different methods, and then, before the elections, but rather after the elections, to remove the pro-European government, which unfortunately shows weakness and often incompetence," said Alexandr Slusari.
At the same time, in his opinion, Moscow demonstrates to Tiraspol what their value is without the Kremlin. However, the main stake of this so-called crisis is the right bank. The former MP is firmly convinced that no later than the end of January, the so-called humanitarian crisis in the region, brought to the peak when the people freeze, will end.
"There are people who know very well that, by the end of January, gas supplies to the region will be resumed, only in much more drastic conditions compared to the right bank. That is, the volume strictly necessary for domestic consumption on the left bank of the Nistru will be supplied, for the industry there, and without the right to produce electricity for the right bank. And the crisis will come to an end," stated Alexandr Slusari.
The public debate entitled "Fish tail" of the crisis in the eastern region of Moldova" was staged as part of the series of debates "Developing political culture through public debates". IPN Agency implements the project with support from the German "Hanns Seidel" Foundation.
