IPN analysis

While waiting for the day of March 5, everybody does some calculations and makes forecasts to predict the outcome of the move of the Communist Party (PCRM), which put forward a censure motion against the Filat Government. For the time being, only the Democratic Party (PDM) announced its intention to support the motion. The lawmakers of Igor Dodon’s group said they are also in favor of the dismissal of the Cabinet, while unaffiliated MP Mihai Godea proposed his own motion. Among the possible scenarios, the most plausible one is that according to which Vlad Filat will be Prime Minister at least ‘until the end of the world’ in the worst case, as a Moldovan anecdote that appeared about two years ago says.

For clarity, we should remove the scenario according to which Vlad Filat gives up the post voluntarily, as the PDM demands and the Liberal Party (PL) suggests. This should be done not only because the Constitution does not envision such a situation, as the Prime Minister is invested together with the Cabinet and resigns together with it. A voluntary resignation of Vlad Filat is not only disadvantageous, but also suicidal from political viewpoint both for him and for the party that he heads, especially when the opponents say explicitly that “Filat can no longer be Prime Minister”, including in the case of a new government of the same Alliance for European Integration (AEI), if it can be maintained. In case of voluntarily resignation, Filat and the PLDM may loose a lot, while in case of early legislative elections – even everything they now have, including and especially the access to administrative resources, the positions of important players of media events, etc. Why would the PLDM, which says that it is the most important constituent and founder of the AEI, by the number of seats in Parliament, accept? Why would the PDM and PL expect that the PLDM would accept this variant or the ‘zero variant’ as they call it?

The ‘zero variant’ may be useful if the PLDM, PDM and PL first of all reach an agreement concerning the new government and, respectively, sign a new agreement on the formation of the AEI so that the Filat 2 Cabinet resigned voluntarily afterward, according to the new agreement.

Thus, the dismissal of the Filat Government will be put to the vote on March 5. There are only two possible solutions here. The motion proposed by the PCRM will be rejected or it will gain the number of votes needed to be accepted. As many as 51 votes are needed to dismiss the Government, but they cannot be garnered without the 15 votes of the PDM. The PL said it will not support the motion. Let’s assume that the necessary number of votes is gathered and the Government is dismissed. But the executive headed by Vlad Filat, not another person, will continue to work until a new Government is chosen. Who now in Moldova believes that a new Government within the AEI can be formed earlier than in two years – the period of time that was needed to elect the head of state? Furthermore, there will be no constitution agreement that the three parties will have to respect... Thus, the Filat Government may remain to govern until the expiration of the mandate, in November 2014.

This period can be shortened, but only in one case: early parliamentary elections will be called. They cannot be yet called without the votes of the PDM. Will the PDM assume such a decision and such a risk? It would be not only a suicidal move, but also a fatal one for the country’s European integration course. But in this case too, the Filat Government and Filat will continue to manage the affairs in the country, including during the election period. Meanwhile, the Communists would easier find allies to implement the second point of an older scenario on which they insisted for a long time: to dismiss Marian Lupu from the post of Speaker. Consequently, the PDM would remain in the possible election campaign without almost all the resources available to those in power. The PLDM and Filat will keep them partially.

There is also the scenario of a ‘revolution’ promised by the PCRM, but it would sweep away all the political players who consider themselves now very important. It is like in the anecdote with the fascist and partisans, who occupied the forest in turn as a result of heavy battles. “But the woodman came and drove everyone away”... The ‘revolution’ will be catastrophic for the country, especially its European course.

Another anecdote that was popular when Mihai Ghimpu held the post of Acting President of Moldova says: God called Obama, Lukashenko, and Ghimpu to him and said: “Tomorrow it is the end of the world. Go to your nations and tell them to get ready.” Obama called his people and said: “I have two pieces of news: a good one and a bad one. The first: God exists. The second: Tomorrow it is the end of the world.” Lukashenko told his people: “I have two pieces of news and they are both bad. The first: It turned out that I’m not God. The second: Tomorrow it is the end of the world.” Ghimpu gathered the people and said: “I have two pieces of news and they are both good. The first: God recognized me as head of state. The second: I will be President until the end of the world.”

In our case, ‘the end of the world’ will come with early elections.

Valeriu Vasilica, IPN