The June issue of the Electoral Barometer 2020 carried out by Date Inteligente SRL (iData) among experts shows that 47.6% of these consider the hospitality industry should have resumed work on July 1, while 38.1% agree with the date of June 15. More than half of the experts plead for the restoration of some of the restrictions, such as work from a distance, closing of markets and banning of religious ceremonies. “They consider that particular restrictions should be imposed and are less in favor of stopping the economy, as it happened in the quarantine period,” iData executive director Mihai Bologan stated in a news conference at IPN.
According to the poll, half of the experts are against the closing of the Transnistrian frontier for Moldovan citizens. Most of the experts consider that a large flow of migrants will be witnessed together with the resumption of international flights. The presentation of COVID-19 passports will be imposed or the number of infections will grow.
According to national and international estimates, as Mihai Bologan says, the economy in 2020 will decline owing to COVID-19. Some 38.1% of the experts believe that more than two years will be needed for the economy to return to the level of February 2020. As to the costs of this return, the most popular answers were: about €2 billion and €500 million.
Most of the experts consider that Moldova needs the Russian loan of €200 million, while 33.3% have neither a good nor a bad opinion about Igor Dodon’s intention to discuss the possibility of signing a new lending agreement with the Russian Federation during his visit to Moscow. To cover the budget deficit, 86% of the experts said the stolen bank funds should be recovered and foreign loans should be raised.
The largest number of experts consider the PSRM-PDM coalition should manage Moldova at present and a lower number said a PAS minority government should do this. 66.7% of the experts consider snap parliamentary elections will be held in Moldova next year, while 9.5% consider these will take place this year, but not simultaneously with the presidential elections. 23.8% believe ordinary parliamentary elections will be held in 2023.
In the case of snap elections in autumn, all the experts agree that the PAS and PSRM will enter Parliament after these. All the experts, except for one expert, consider the Pro Moldova group will become a political party. Most of them believe the defections of MPs to Pro Moldova were based on a hidden promise or on a financial motivation.
One year of the change of power, the experts consider things remained the same. The U.S. Embassy, Igor Dodon or Russia contributed the most to the change of power. Practically all the experts said Vlad Plahotniuc will not return home during the next six months as a politician.
In another development, 90.5% of the experts said the presidential elections will take place in November 2020 and only 9.5% said they will be held next spring. Except for Igor Dodon and Maia Sandu, the experts consider three more politicians could run in elections, namely Renato Usatyi, Andrei Năstase, Pavel Filip or Adrian Candu. 52.4% of the experts think Igor Dodon will win the presidential elections, while 47.6% believe that Maia Sandu will win them. The difference is made by an expert. Maia Sandu is anticipated to be the common candidate for President of the forces of the right. Fewer said this about Andrei Năstase. Octavian Țîcu will represent the unionist forces in elections, while fewer see Vlad Țurcanu and Maia Sandu in this position.
The June issue of the Electoral Barometer 2020 covered 21 experts and was conducted during June 10-15. Mihai Bologan admitted that experts’ responses could be influenced by their political affiliation as three experts are affiliated to the PSRM and the Shor Party, three to the PDM and Pro Moldova and six represent different parties of the right, either parliamentary or extraparliamentary. Most of them are representatives of civil society. The study was not a quantity one, but a quality one based on the expert method.
