The economic growth of 8.9% recorded in 2013 must be treated with precaution. It was due to the recovery of agriculture following the drought of 2012, the relaxed monetary policy and depreciation of the national currency, it is said in the publication MEGA that was presented by the think tank “Expert-Grup” in a news conference. Analysts consider it will be hard to repeat this performance this year. They project that the economic growth in 2014 will be 2.1%, or even 0.5% in case of a pessimistic scenario, IPN reports.
Among the persisting risks, “Expert-Grup” underlines the worsening of the economic situation in the CIS, to which a large part of Moldova’s exports go. Russia didn’t lift the ban on wine imports and may impose restrictions on other products too, especially fruit and vegetables. The foreign investors will avoid the region in the wake of the developments in Ukraine.
There are a number of internal risks, such as the imperfect competition framework, monopolization of the market, poor protection of ownership rights, low level of confidence of creditors in the construction sector, etc. “The fact that we are in an electoral year will also have an impact on the economic development, especially by the adoption of populist decisions that will lead to a significant rise in costs,” said “Expert-Grup” director Adrian Lupusor.
As to the opportunities for Moldova’s economy in 2014, “Expert-Grup” enumerated the liberalization of the visa regime with the EU, the signing of the Association Agreement with the EU, the strengthening of the strategic dialogue with the U.S. and the increase in the volume of loans provided by the banking sector. “If these opportunities are taken, the positive and negative aspects that influence the economic growth can be balanced to a certain extent,” said economic expert Alexandru Fala.
Chairman of the National Employers Confederation of Moldova Leonid Cerescu considers the risks can be reduced if emphasis is put on the improvement of the business climate, elimination of the constraints faced by businesses, stimulation of investments, and on the enhancement of competitiveness of economic entities.
According to “Expert-Grup”, the economic growth in 2015 will be 5.2%.
