The economic growth in Moldova will visibly slow down, with the economy being forecast to stagnate until the end of this year given the very difficult current economic, social and politic situation. The Independent Analytical Center “Expert-Grup” has launched a new edition of “Economic Realty” where it analyzes the economic development in the country, IPN reports.
The publication says there is unprecedented dissonance between the population’s perception and the statistical data about the Moldovan economy’s development. According to the preliminary data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the country’s GDP in the first quarter of 2015 increased surprisingly by 4.8%. At the same time, the Public Opinion Barometer, presented in April 2015, shows only 7.9% of the respondents consider the economic situation is better or slightly better compared with a year ago. This is one of the lowest levels since the given survey is being carried out. Such dissonance is a due to the quality and frail durability of the economic growth revealed by the statistical data.
“Expert-Grup” considers this surprising rise was fueled mainly by the depreciation of the national currency, which, even if it caused dissatisfaction in society, stimulated the growth in the value in lei of remittances and exports. In the first quarter of this year, the value of exports of goods expressed in US dollars fell by 14.7%, but the value of exports expressed in lei and adjusted to the rate inflation rose by 3%. Eleven if the remittances decreased by 33%, the population’s incomes from cash transfers from abroad expressed in lei and adjusted to the rate of inflation increased by 16%. Furthermore, the depreciation made the imports more expensive and alleviated the losses of exporters, encouraging the consumers to purchase products made in Moldova. In general, the floating exchange rate served as an efficient mechanism for adjusting the national economy to the internal and external shocks.
But the economic growth will slow down perceptibly and the economy will apparently stagnate until this yearend. The economy and the whole society haven’t yet fully felt the repercussions of the thefts committed at Banca de Economii, Banca Sociala and Unibank, of the restriction of the monetary policy and of the lower financial and technical support received from the development partners. Namely these factors will exert essential pressure on the economy in the near future, through the risks to the stability of the national currency, public finances and the inflationist and poverty risks.
In the current economic, social and political situation, which is very difficult, the political elites and civil society should join efforts and immediately work out an anti-crisis plan of action. This should include at least three sets of immediate measures, namely: improvement of the situation in the banking system and solving of the problem of the three banks; stabilization of public finances; resumption of the dialogue with the development partners and avoidance of a default; liberalization of the business climate and encouragement of entrepreneurship, consider the authors of the publication.
