Expert anticipates new wave of financial woes in Europe
Europe is likely to experience a new episode of financial adversity, says Dr. Sveatoslav Mihalache, director of the advisory firm Financial Brains. What happened in 2008, when the Euro plummeted in just two months from 1.60 to 1.23 against the US dollar, seems to be repeating in a remarkably similar way, the expert wrote in an article, quoted by Info-Prim Neo.
“All the financial world's attention is now focused on the United States' monetary policy, the US debt, the exchange rates of the US dollar; yet the second act of the tragedy called the Global Crisis seems to be looming in Europe. The history of financial crises warns us that in the foreseeable future we should see a new series of European crashes”, says Dr. Sveatoslav Mihalache.
As the debts of the “peripheral” European countries are rising, officials and politicians are following the same trick that was employed in 2008, that is, delaying payments as long as possible. And while this means delaying a default as well, the EU currency and the EU itself is being put in an uncertain situation. At first it was Greece: both European and Greek officials assured the public that the situation was not critical, but eventually everyone had to admit that the country was on the verge of default. Then it was Ireland and Portugal with the same story: in the morning officials were saying everything was under control only to ask for help in the evening. Now it's Spain's turn, says the expert.
According to Sveatoslav Mihalache, politicians continue to hope that a way fill be found to shift from economic decline to a rapid and sustainable growth, but things should be moving much faster than now for this to happen.
The Euro is at the core of the problem, even if it's appreciating due to continued efforts by the EU to maintain it. International partners, China for instance, are interested in helping Europe buy some time. “But what will happen when time runs out for Europe, when China and other central banks refuse to buy Euro any further?”, Dr. Mihalache asks rhetorically.
Recently the European Central Bank raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to 1.25% despite some criticism that it could have negative effects on the EU economy. In the long run, thinks Dr. Mihalache, this decision could cause the Euro to collapse as it may blunt hopes of recovery in the “peripheral” countries. Time can erode the position of the Euro because an appreciation will inevitably lead to a downturn in business activity and will weaken the competitiveness of European commodities, concluded Dr. Sveatoslav Mihalache.