Expected rise in fuel excises will have a short-term effect on inflation, central bank

The anticipated 6.9% increase in excises on gasoline and diesel fuel from 2012 will affect the inflation, but will not push it up, the governor of the National Bank of Moldova Dorin Dragutanu said in a meeting of the EU Press Club last week, Info-Prim Neo reports. The Ministry of Finance explained that the excises will be increased in order to augment the road fund for rehabilitating the national roads. Asked what he prefers – good roads or a low inflation rate, the governor said both of them. Dorin Dragutanu said the continuous rise in the prices of food products on the international market will exert greater pressure on inflation. The expected increase in gas tariffs, of 21% or 28%, and the price rises that will follow may cause the inflation to rise from 0.2% to 0.5%. “When we say that the main objective of the National Bank is to target inflation, we mean that we aim to prevent the economy from entering an inflationist spiral. Even if there are factors that can affect the inflation rate, like the rise in gas tariffs and in the excise duties on gasoline and diesel oil, they have a short-term effect,” Dorin Dragutanu explained. He regretted yet that such impulses happen every quarter in Moldova – the gas tariffs or oil prices rise, there are floods or drought. “This is typical of the environment where we live and we must cope. When formulating the monetary policy and tackling the long-term inflation, the central bank intends to create a framework where the economy can grow at a pace close to the optimal one. We try to maintain the rate of inflation so as to obtain robust economic growth,” said Dorin Dragutanu. According to the last forecast presented by the National Bank this August, the annual average inflation rate for 2011 will be 8.4%. In 2012, the inflation rate will be 7.4%, but will fall to the level of 5.7% forecast by the central bank towards the end of the year.

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