The European theme powerfully influences the public narrative in Moldova. The success or failure to implement the EU - Moldova Association Agreement serves as a government quality indicator. That’s why the more modest are the results, the smaller are the political and electoral prospects of the ruling parties.

A specific feature of the Agreement is that its results often cannot become immediately palpable and this needs time and radical legal, institutional changes and changes in the state’s behavior towards the people and vice versa. At the same time, neither the Agreement, nor the Association Agenda, which prioritizes the reform objectives once in two years, contains instruments that would assess and simultaneously stimulate reforms. Therefore, the assessment mechanism connected to the EU macro-financial assistance improves the principle of conditionality (IPN, October 9, 2017). Before providing an installment of the total of €100 million accessible to Moldova until 2020, the EU must check how the government of Moldova fulfills its commitments, namely the list of 28 sector conditions, and an undetermined number of political preconditions.

It’s true that this provides a unique platform for the government to be monitored by the EU institutions, opposition and civil society. As a result, some of the reforms can be hastened. But the government manages to adjust this type of “improved conditionality” that is applied by the Europeans to Moldova. This way, the Democratic Party can choose the policy priorities and can focalize all the political, institutional and communication resources so as to achieve maximal results.

On the one hand, this form of prioritizing the efforts helps the government to easier shape the wanted public opinion. On the other hand, this offers the authorities the possibility of convincing the European partners that the commitments are being fulfilled. Only the principledness, profoundness and length of the EU assessment of the fulfillment of each of the 28 sector conditions and the real functioning of the democratic institution can thwart the government’s strategy.

EU commenced assessment process

In February 2018, assessors of the Director General for Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission started to assess the fulfillment of the first ten sectored conditions by the Moldovan side. Besides meetings with Moldovan officials responsible for the examined sectors, the European officials asked for the viewpoint of representatives of civil society.

The assessment report will most probably be published in February-March and a positive or negative decision will be taken based on this as to the provision of the first installment of assistance. Thus, if the assessment is positive, the first €30 million will be disbursed by this autumn. A negative or even partially negative appraisal will include punctual sub-conditions and eventually a repeated assessment of a lesser extent. This could push the provision of the first installment towards the period of the election campaign prior to the parliamentary elections, which is the end of 2018.

Besides a positive assessment, the government also needs appreciation of the Moldovan democratic institutions. Though it seems an ideal and practically impossible situation, the government understands that the first installment could not be received other way. Unlike the sector conditions, the political preconditions are more interpretable. Both the anti-government opposition and civil society and the government too count on this detail in deciding the fate of the first installment.

Eligible or not for EU macro-financial assistance?

Through the agency of the priority reform action roadmap for July-December 2017, assumed by the Government and Parliament on July 5, 2017, the Democrat Party committed itself to do a number of reforms. A part of these reforms were inspired by the sector conditions for obtaining macro-financial assistance, which were already discussed with Brussels, before the launch of the roadmap. This interconnection between the sector conditions and the “roadmap” is not accidental. It was caused by the necessity of diminishing attention devoted to the adoption of the mixed-member electoral system (July 20, 2017). Through this method, the acceleration of particular reforms that were earlier delayed (integrity system, public procurement, fight against money laundering, etc.) reoriented the public agenda to other debates than those on the voting system.

The assessment reports compiled by representatives of civil society confirm that the authorities achieved particular progresses on ten sector conditions. Many of the conditions saw modest progress and multiple shortcomings in the fulfillment process, while some are not finalized and this significantly diminishes the impact of the medium- and long-term measures.

More exactly, of the total of ten conditions, five were implemented with deficiencies, while two weren’t fulfilled completely. Thus, only three conditions were met without major defects. (See table below) 

Table. Assessment of sector conditions based on appraisal of “roadmap” by civil society

Based on these judgments, the first installment of the macro-financial assistance should not be disbursed until all the shortcomings in the seven problematic conditions are removed. In particular, it is about the ensuring of the excellent functioning of the National Integrity Authority, which should obstruct the corruptible instincts in the public and political sectors. Special attention should also be devoted to the Criminal Assets Recovery Agency whose role is essential in restoring the maximally possible amounts of the stolen funds following the banking frauds and not only.

The political preconditions are the most difficult part in the EU’s assessment as Moldova permanently fulfills these inappropriately. The modification of the electoral system in favor of the ruling party and in a non-transparent way is the main concern. According to the findings of civil society, the government fully fulfilled only 12 of the measures of those recommended by the Venice Commission concerning the electoral system change. Fourteen measures were implemented with deficiencies, while six measurers weren’t implemented at all. Based on these assessments alone, the first installment should not be provided. That’s why the political preconditions are the area where the government of Moldova finds it more difficult to camouflage the failures and insinuate progress.

Instead of conclusion

If the EU took a decision based on the assessments of civil society, Moldova should not receive the first installment of the macro-financial assistance. Neither the political nor the sector preconditions were completely met.

It’s certain that the government will present the own view on reforms and will try to balance the view on the quality of the fulfillment of the sector conditions. That’s why the expectations of the public in Moldova should be realistic. The European assessors will have a very objective report that will also contain concerns and additional demands over a number of sector conditions (integrity, public procurement, etc.). The assessment of the political preconditions remains a surprise for now, even if the situation in the country actually does not predispose to favorable results for releasing the first installment.

Amid the Moldovan realities, the EU macro-financial assistance can have a favorable impact for accelerating painful reforms that have been avoided by the government until now. The EU should use the weaknesses of the ruling party and the electoral context to obtain more concessions and, respectively, sustainable changes in terms of reforms.