“Economic recession will be overcome by the end of the first quarter of 2010”. Interview given by Premier Vlad Filat to Info-Prim Neo

[ - What changes did you make after taking over the country several months ago? What did the ordinary citizen gain from these changes?] - When we took over, Moldova’s economy was in a deep crisis as practically all the sectors of the economy were stagnant and the budget deficit was considerable. The fact that the previous government postponed implementing anti-crisis measures led to the amplification of the recession. The Gross Domestic Product for the first nine months of the year was 44.2 billion lei, a decrease of 7.7% compared with the corresponding period last year (in comparable prices). Output in the construction sector fell by 30.8%, in industry – by 23.3%, in transport and communications – by 14.8%, agriculture – by 10.6%. Exports and imports in the ten months to October decreased by 24.2% and 36.9% respectively. Revenues of 18.6 billion lei were collected in the period into the national public budget, down 8.6% from January-October last year. The expenditure was 21.4 billion lei, up 3.7%. Thus, the budget deficit was 2.8 billion lei. It was 10.6 times larger compared with the deficit in the same period last year. When the Filat Government was constituted, the yearly budget deficit was assessed at 16% of the GDP or about 8.5 billion lei, which is almost half of the budget for 2009. The new Government undertook the difficult tasks of pulling the country out of the financial and economic crisis, unblocking the economic processes in order to foster Moldova’s development, ensuring the normal activity of the democratic institutions and bringing Moldova as closer to the EU as possible. During the first 100 days of the constitution, the new Government had been, de facto, forced to ensure the country’s survival. The results achieved in this period show that the Government managed to cope with the difficulties. The social payments were made on time. The smooth running of the state institutions was ensured. The democratic and economic reforms have been implemented at a normal pace. Moldova improved the relations with the development partners, the neighboring countries and the European Union. The first steps were taken to deal with the recession, which the authorities plan to overcome until the end of the first quarter of 2010, and stimulate economic growth. The negotiations on the new Association Agreement between Moldova and the EU will open on January 12. [ - At what stage is the economic crisis at present: at the beginning, middle or end?] - After the investiture of the new Government, we started to work on the economic development and stabilization program that was approved at the expected time and is now being implemented. The program was formulated on the basis of the proposals made by the central public authorities, the civil society and the development partners. The document centers on three major priorities, namely: 1) Stabilization and optimization of the use of public finances; 2) Economic recovery; 3) Ensuring of efficient and fair social protection. The measures are aimed at stimulating economic growth from 2010. The economic recovery will be accompanied by rises in the industrial and agricultural production, in the volume of services, in foreign direct investment, in foreign trade, and the decrease in the budget deficit and unemployment rate. As the major objective is to have a realistic budget, the Government started to review the macroeconomic indicators and the budget for 2009 immediately after its constitution. The spending was adjusted to the available resources so as to ensure an optimum balance in crisis situations. The indicators of the state budget, the state social insurance budget and the budget of the mandatory health insurance funds were reviewed on the basis of the updated macroeconomic framework. Thus, the deficit of the national public budget was decreased to 9% of the GDP. The state budget assumed the main burden in financing the deficit – 7.8% of the GDP. Part of the deficit of the state social insurance budget was also covered – 1.4% of the GDP or 824 million lei. Contrary to the expectations of our opponents, we managed to formulate and adopt the budgetary fiscal policy and the state budget for the next year, ensuring thus a relative stability from this viewpoint. The budget is realistic and is socially oriented. The economy is showing clear signs of recovery. In October, when the new Government took over, exports totaled US$124.9 million, up 17.5% from a month before. The exports to the EU came to US$58.7 million, making up 52.7% of the total exports. Another important sign is the fact that the volume of cargo handled by the national carriers in November rose by 6.9% on October. The industrial production volume in November grew by 12.9% from October owing mainly to the 5% increase in output in the processing industry and the 2.3-fold rise in production in the energy sector. According to the realistic calculations we did, the economic recession will be overcome by the end of the first quarter of 2010. [ - When and how will the Moldovans feel that the crisis is over? When will we feel that we live better?] - The economic growth next year is projected to be 1.5%. According to the latest data, the growth could be even higher. In general, we consider that the objective of obtaining an economic growth of minimum 5% in 2010 is achievable. I stated earlier and will repeat: the economic growth and the improvement of the living conditions in Moldova are interdependent for us. Therefore, the growth that we projected will have a beneficial effect on the living standards. [ - What is the role played by the government and the foreign donors in managing the social and economic situation in the country? What can you say about the parliamentary Opposition’s accusations that you made significant concessions in order to obtain foreign financial assistance?] - Evidently, the support of the development partners is very important to us, especially because the situation when we took over was very difficult. The speculations about the concessions that we made to the detriment of the ordinary people are groundless and should be treated as such. It is enough to take stock of the agreements that we reached with the IMF in order to see this. Speculations were also made about alleged social conditions imposed by the IMF that could affect some of the groups of people. To our opponents’ disappointment, the memorandum with the IMF does not envision the modification of the retirement age, which remained 57 years for women and 62 years for men. The 24% increase in teachers’ salaries was preserved. Only units of employees, mainly vacant posts not persons, will be reduced in the budgetary sector. The social protection of the population as a result of the agreement with the IMF will only improve. I will give you only one example – in order to reduce the impact of the recession on the most vulnerable groups of people, since 2010 we will implement a new social assistance system. The minimum guaranteed income will be raised essentially, up to the extreme poverty level (extreme poverty is when a person lives on less than US$2 a day). The benefits in 2010, including the unemployment benefit, will be 630 million lei under the new system. This is a rise of 40% compared with 2009. [ - Some of the countries got rid of similar problems by an extremely painful, but short-term shock therapy. Does Moldova have an alternative?] - We should not now resort to shock therapy. I’m glad that we had (and have) sufficient ability and support to take efficient measures to overcome the crisis and to manage the country’s affairs and we do not need to resort to less popular measures. [ - The people and the economic entities are concerned about the situation on the currency market. Do they have reasons for this? The authorities sometimes make contradictory official statements.] - The situation on the currency market is under control and there are no reasons for concern. Representatives of the National Bank and of the Government reiterated this. We discussed the situation on the currency market, including at meetings involving representatives of the National Bank, and will continue to discuss it whenever needed. We will make sure that this market works according to the rules of the market economy and will not interfere as the previous government did. [ - They say the economic entities suspected of being loyal to the former Communist government are subject to pressing inspections, including by the Center for Combating Organized Crime and Corruption, the Prosecutor’s Office, the Audit Office, etc. Are these inspections different from those carried out at the economic entities disloyal to the PCRM, which you personally and others described as political settling of accounts?] - Let’s not exaggerate. Their situation is different. The former government attacked certain economic entities, using well-planned schemes aimed at taking over businesses or nationalizing them. The present inspections' aim is not to intimidate, but to remove the abnormal situations and the serious violations committed until present. I mean the misappropriations at the state civil aviation administration, the fraudulent schemes used on the meat and fish products market, etc. [ - How will Moldova look at the end of 2010 or the end of the present Government’s term in office, if it is shorter than one year? Will the changes benefit the people?] - All our steps are based on the ordinary people’s interests. I’m confident that the changes we initiated now will produce results over time and the ordinary people will feel their effects. I mean the changes concerning the functioning of the democratic institutions, in the social and economic spheres. I’m sure we will be closer to the EU in a year, will have better relations with the neighbors, a much more developed economy and a higher level of democracy. [ - Now several political questions. What did 2009 mean for you and for Moldova from political viewpoint?] - It was probably the most important year since the proclamation of Moldova’s independence. After a long period during which the democracy and the market economy had been discredited, the country returned to a normal development. The people showed that they deserve living in a free state and that they know how to defend their freedom. It is true that the price paid for this was very high. I mean the tragic events of April 7-8 that will remain in our memory for ever. For me personally, 2009 was rather successful from political point of view. I’m proud that the political project I launched in 2007 turned out to be successful as the PLDM became one of the major political organizations in the country. In 2009, we achieved the earlier set goal – we removed the Communists from power. [ - Were the April 7-8 events and the subsequent events a series of events or a complex of phenomena?] - It was rather the materialization of the natural wish of the people to live in a free, democratic and European state. The events that happened on April 7-8 and later had only one goal – to bring things to normality. [ - Can you characterize the behavior of the AEI leaders in that period, including yours? Did you take the right steps?] - At that moment, the Alliance for European Integration did not exist. But the leaders of the then Opposition, in my opinion, did what they should. We were those who tried to stop the violence, calling on the crowd to remain calm and observe the law. Afterward, we asked the authorities to stop persecuting the young protesters. Steps were taken to rehabilitate the affected young persons. As regards the actions or inaction of the then authorities, it is the competent bodies that should pronounce on this, in accordance with the legislation. [ - How do you explain your statement that the failure to elect the head of state does not affect the work capacity and prerogatives of the Filat Government, its credibility at foreign level?] - The message that we consistently promoted during the last few weeks was: It is regrettable that the President of Moldova was not elected, but, regardless of the created situation, we have a functional Parliament and a functional Government that will make effort to efficiently administer the situation until the constitutional crisis is overcome. There is nothing to add here. [ - How can the constitutional crisis be solved so that the AEI is not accused of amending the Constitution according to conjuncture criteria?] - No speculations can be made if the legislation and the Constitution are strictly observed. We all understand that we reached an impasse (which by the way appeared because the current Constitution was modified according to someone’s interests) and that we must identify solutions to break it. [ - Can the Communists still come to power in Moldova? If yes, in what conditions?] - We pledged to govern the country efficiency and responsibly, basing on the people’s interests, and to achieve results that the people could see. We knew how to achieve our goals and will continue making progress. The PCRM’s rating will decrease proportionally to the increase in our efficiency, which excludes a possible coming to power of the Communists. [ - What do you think about a possible ban on the use of the Communist symbols in Moldova and the possible outlawing of the PCRM?] - The Council of Europe recommended to all the member states to condemn the totalitarian Communist regimes. That’s why in the future we could return to this issue that was discussed in the Parliament earlier. As to the outlawing of the PCRM, I can say that everyone has the right to opinion, including those who make such suggestions, proposals. I consider that we must act in strict accordance with the law.

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