Experts at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) predict that the Moldovan economy will grow in 2010 by over 1.5 percent, however “this mostly reflects the recovery from a deeper than anticipated downturn in the first half of this year, rather than a more vigorous economy during 2010”, Info-Prim Neo reports, quoting a statement by EBRD. Factors restraining growth in 2010 include the subdued pace of export market recovery (particularly in the Euro area) and continuing tight credit conditions, as banks continue gradually to shrink their assets in the region and as lending to households and small firms remains constrained by rising non-performing loans. According to Alex Chirmiciu, EBRD Senior Economist, “the Moldovan economy is undergoing a serious economic crisis in 2009. Falling budget revenues, declining remittances and limited access to external financing call for a careful mix of fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies in order to support macroeconomic stability. The return to positive economic growth in 2010 and beyond partly depends on the pace of the expected recovery in Moldova's main trading partners, but it will also need to be underpinned by further structural reforms and improvements in the business environment.” The EBRD's Transition Report 2009, which will be published in full next month, points out there are likely to be significant cross-country differences in output growth in 2010, masked by an average growth rate for the region of about 2.5 percent.