The first installment of this analysis, which was {published on 18 May 2011}, suggested that the various resources thrown into the ongoing campaign preceding the June 5 local elections are disproportionately great, in comparison to what was used on previous such occasions, and so are the goals pursued in these local-level elections. The only logical explanation is the assumption that the key stake in the upcoming elections is, in fact, the early legislative elections, which the Moldovan political class partly cannot, and partly doesn't want to, avoid. This explains some moves and tricks which have happened in abundance in this campaign. One of them, which came very unexpectedly and whose effects are rather unpredictable, was the defection of Mihai Godea, the Lib-Dem vice president, from the party and his decision to run independently for Chisinau Mayor. [Three scenarios for Mihai Godea] Mihai Godea's move has been a key point in the ongoing campaign. Its significance is highlighted by the impact it had on the behavior of several major electoral competitors, in particular the Liberal-Democrats, the Liberals, the Communists and the Democrats. There are signs that Mihai Godea is enjoying either a fair amount of popular support, or the endorsement of some forces sufficiently well-stocked and influential to claim important roles in the Moldovan political life. So well-stocked and influential as to reduce their number to just a few. An argument in support of this assumption is the 13,000 signatures collected in one and a half day, maybe two days, needed to usher Godea into candidacy. To compare, the team of another candidate, Third Force leader Valeriu Plesca, also believed to have sufficient resources, managed to collect 12,000 signatures in seven days, no less, despite a very appealing manifesto. [The first scenario] assumes that Mihai Godea acts in his own name, as he claims it, because he is tired of how things are going within the Liberal-Democratic Party and the Eurointegration Alliance in general. The believable part of this scenario is based on the fact that earlier other top members left the Liberal-Democratic Party as well, for similar, either openly stated or implicit reasons. The less credible part is related to when and how he made the move. Without serious preparation, without securing the solid endorsement of some third parties, to enter the mayoral race just two days before the registration deadline looks more like political suicide for a young, promising politician. The performance of collecting 13,000 signatures in such a short period of time (someone estimated it was one signature at every 8 seconds), but not only this, raises doubts about the genuineness of Godea's autonomy. Such an accomplishment is only possible with the involvement of great financial resources and human networks, created for this particular purpose and this particular candidate (or maybe other purposes and other candidates?). Godea's subsequent campaigning activities also indicated the existence of serious resources in his support. [The second scenario] was suggested by Lib-Dem leader Vlad Filat, who on several occasions referred to certain “puppet masters”, whose names he promised to reveal after the local elections. Putting clues together, some media outlets suggested one of them could be the controversial businessman Vlad Plahotniuc, who is also the Senior Deputy Speaker of Parliament, and who has been on many occasions blamed for being behind hostile takeovers in both business and politics. The believable part in this scenario can be found in the general atmosphere of fighting over who should have power over whom and who controls what, circumstances which have marked the Moldovan sociopolitical life in general and the relations within the ruling Alliance in particular. However, the major weakness of this scenario is that the role of such a “puppet master” can be attributed not only to Vlad Plahotniuc. It's true though, the list of potential “puppet master” cannot be too long, considering the resources and boldness needed to confront Prime Minister Vlad Filat and his Liberal-Democratic Party, which is perhaps the most potent party in Moldova at present. However, there might be no need for such confrontation at all... [The third scenario] admits the appearance of the Godea case at the initiative of Vlad Filat himself and his close Lib-Dem entourage. Godea could the hidden facet of the decision to withdraw Victor Bodiu from the mayoral race, a smart move made in the view of potential legislative elections. The believability of such a scenario builds on the fact that Mihai Godea held a very high position in the party, that of the leading ideologist and administrator of the party's internal affairs. His responsibilities probably also included developing and implementing this sort of political strategies. It is possible that this time he also plays the leading role in the enactment of such a strategy, given the very high level of risk involved. According to this scenario, the first part of Mihai Godea's mission is to secure the Liberal-Democrats' hidden presence in the mayoral race, so that after Bodiu's withdrawal the missed votes don't go squarely to one of the powerful candidates, because this would cause trouble for the Lib-Dems in case of early elections. This is why, as it was suggested in the first part of the analysis, Liberal Dorin Chirtoaca shouldn't count too much on the Lib-Dems' support in the first round of the poll, as he cannot count on Democrat Valentina Buliga either. It can be expected that some of these votes will go to Mihai Godea, assuming that the resources involved are indeed serious. In fact, being the only independent candidate, Mihai Godea is the only alternative left for many people disillusioned by partisan politics. Godea's second task according to this scenario, but also according to the second scenario, is to contribute to the reformation of the Moldovan political landscape, creating conditions for other actors to enter Parliament as well in the event of early legislative elections, actors with whom “puppeteers” will get along easier. [A stalking-horse?] The scenarios described above fit all into the term known in the political theory and practice, but also in business, as a “stalking-horse”. Originally the term was used to describe a hunting practice, where hunters hide behind such a horse, using it to approach the game as much as possible. In politics, a stalking-horse is used to bring down an influential politician, often by members of their own party. Alternatively, the “horse” may be acting in a more altruistic and self-sacrificial manner, motivated by duty for the greater good. However, the “hunter” who originally launched the “horse” can be outplayed by more skilled and better equipped “hunters”. So the Chisinau Mayor's seat can be won by another candidate than expected in whatever secret scenario and this can affect the results of the early parliamentary elections and, therefore, the political color of the country's next government. [The re-fragmentation and reformation of the political configuration] While the Godea project may not produce immediate results in the upcoming local elections, this campaign will be used by hunters/puppeteers to make him an attractive alternative for some categories of voters or even vulnerable segments from the existing political parties, causing them to defect. It will be just one of new attraction centers, as others already exist or have been announced. A former AMN leader, Alexandru Oleinic, who refused to join the PLDM together with the core of the disbanded party, stated on many occasions that he would launch a new political project after the elections in a bid to reunite former AMN members that haven’t joined other parties, or even members of existing parties who are disappointed by the current state of Moldovan politics. Although Oleinic is known to be rather close to the Democratic Party, his option wasn’t to join the PDM. Instead, he chose to assemble a different party which, in case of a successful electoral score, could cooperate with the PDM in the next Parliament. The same path could be followed by a hypothetical party headed by Mihai Godea, which could cooperate with the PDM or the PLDM. Recently, the Communist Party has been revived, while AMN and MAE have been absorbed by the PLDM and the PL respectively. The process of re-fragmentation and reformation of the Moldovan political landscape is underway and the stake is obviously on the early parliamentary elections that could take place after 28 November 2011. This process is somewhat forced and may harm democracy in Moldova. However, it may prove useful and necessary, if the current political configuration fails to find solutions for overcoming the political crisis and for the country’s development. [Valeriu Vasilica, Info-Prim Neo]