The dynamism of this vote will create political opportunities for the opposition, which will not be able to govern because it will not have a majority and will refuse any coalition with the PDM, but which instead can become a robust parliamentary opposition, writes political scientist Dionis Cenusa in an analytical article for the IPN Agency.
The political scientist points out that diaspora is associated by Moldovan political parties as an important source of political power strengthening and increasing of internal and external legitimacy.
Demographic problems and the migration trends among Moldovans are approaching the moment when political actors in the country will debate the political rights of the diaspora or the need to treat migrants fairly, regardless of their geographic and geopolitical position, points out the political scientist.
In his opinion, the results of the parliamentary elections of 2019 could play a decisive role in subsequent revisions of the degree of diaspora's involvement in the political life of the country. In large part, writes Dionis Cenusa, the establishment of the balance of power in parliament could be influenced by the diaspora in Europe.
The expectations of the opposition to the mobilization of the diaspora faces a serious reality, the political scientist notes.
On the one hand, the authorities subordinated to the Democratic Party are applying preventive measures to discourage the diaspora from voting - excluding voters with expired passports and maintaining the number of polling stations at a relatively small number compared to the diaspora (about 1 million), underlines the political scientist.
And, on the other hand, the diaspora's political activism in these elections seems to be inferior to that of the presidential elections in 2016, Dionis Cenusa observes. He believes that the introduction of the mixed vote has objectively diminished the influence the diaspora has begun to become aware of and assimilate since the presidential election of 2016.
Following the deliberate complication of rule of the game by the government, the involving of diaspora in the electoral competition requires renewed arguments and identifying measures for the creative engagement with the diaspora before and after the election, the political scientist suggests.
An additional incentive to mobilize the diaspora vote in the 2019 election may be to raise the awareness of diaspora about geopolitical risks, stresses Dionis Cenusa. Both the distortion of European integration or the reorientation of the country to the East as very probable scenarios will generate losers, which will also include the Moldovan migrants. That is why the diaspora must use the electoral philosophy and platforms of 2016 to vote abroad and inspire the voters at home, concludes the political scientist.
