Decline and progress in economic development and reform, 13th Euromonitor warns

The single-digit inflation achieved last year was the greatest accomplishment in the area of macroeconomic stability in Moldova, for the first time since 2002, say authors of the 13th Euromonitor report, which focuses on the last quarter of 2008. The rate of inflation for 2008 announced by the Ministry of Economy and Trade was 7.3%, Info-Prim Neo reports. “Such a rate was possible owing to the cheaper fuel in the second half of 2008, the favorable weather conditions that did not determine the rise in the prices of agricultural products and the steps taken by the National Bank of Moldova in the first half of the year,” Ana Popa, expert of the Analytical Center “Expert-Grup”, said during the presentation of the study. “Consequently, the national bank could intervene on the money market in the fourth quarter and reduce the base rate on the major short-term monetary operations, from 17% in September to 14% in December,” the expert said. Another positive aspect mentioned by the authors is the continuous economic growth at a time when the countries affected by the world economic crisis saw declines or slowdowns in the economic growth. A reason for concern is the fact that the gross value added in the GDP decreased, while the share of taxes on product and import increased. Also, the leu stopped appreciating in the third quarter, while the lower currency inflows can determine the depreciation of the leu, mainly this year. During the first 11 months of 2008, salaries have increased by 23.6% compared with the corresponding period last year. However, the salaries in education remain much lower than the average salary in economy and rose at the slowest rate, Euromonitor says. The macroeconomic forecasts made by the Government of Moldova are not credible, say experts, invoking the lack of technical, financial and human resources. “When the state budget was adopted, the major priorities stipulated in the average-term expenditure framework were not taken into account. Most of the resources are allocated to the social sphere,” Ana Popa said. The quarterly analytical report Euromonitor is compiled by the Association for Participative Democracy “Adept” and the Analytical Center “Expert-Grup”. It is issued with the financial assistance of Soros-Moldova Foundation as part of the project “Moldova-EU Relations: Improving Information and Public Debate on Major Evolutions”. The last report, for the fourth quarter of 2008, was presented on February 10.

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