In many countries, such as in Moldova, the risks of climate change are an immediate and fundamental problem because the majority of the rural population depends either directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods, according to the World Bank publication “Reducing the Vulnerability of Moldova’s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change”, IPN reports.

“The rural poor will be disproportionately affected because of their greater dependence on agriculture, their relatively lower ability to adapt, and the high share of income they spend on food,” said William Sutton, an author of the book and a Lead Agriculture Economist at the World Bank.

According to the report, over the next 40 years climate change will grow more severe in Moldova. Average warming will be about 2°C, compared with the less than 0.6°C increase in temperature observed over the last 50 years, and precipitation will become more variable. Summer temperature increases can be as much as 7°C in southern Moldova by the middle of the century. Farmers in Moldova are not suitably adapted to current climate. This effect is sometimes called the ‘adaptation deficit’, which in Moldova is large.

The report authors also project water supply and demand in Moldova under a changed climate, and forecast substantial water shortages for the Raut and Nistru River basins in the future, meaning that there will be insufficient water available to irrigate crops. As a result, the total effects of climate change could lead to losses for farmers of from 10 to 30 percent for crops like maize, wheat, alfalfa and vegetables under the medium impact scenario. Fruit crops like grapes and apples will not be as severely affected, but they are still projected to suffer losses of from 0 to 10 percent if nothing is done to adapt.

William Sutton added that at the same time, climate change can also create opportunities, particularly in the agricultural sector. Increased temperatures can lengthen growing seasons, higher carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations can enhance plant growth, and in some areas rainfall and the availability of water resources can increase as a result of climate change.

According to the publication, the risks of climate change to agriculture in Moldova cannot be effectively dealt with—and the opportunities cannot be effectively taken advantage of—without a clear plan for aligning agricultural policies with climate change, developing the capabilities of key agricultural institutions, and making needed investments in infrastructure, support services, and on-farm improvements.