Inflation will continue to decline slightly in the first quarter of the forecast, after which it will increase until early next year. It will subsequently decrease insignificantly until the end of the forecast horizon, except for the fourth quarter of 2025, when it will increase insignificantly. The predictions were presented on Tuesday by the National Bank governor Anca Dragu.

“The annual inflation rate will oscillate in the vicinity of the 5% target, if we are talking about the medium-term inflation forecast, and will remain within the variation range of ±1.5 percentage points from the 5% target throughout the forecast horizon”, Dragu told a press conference.

The annual inflation rate will record a maximum of 6.4% in the first quarter of 2025 and a minimum of 3.5% in the third quarter of 2025. The annual average inflation will be 5% in 2024 and 4.6% in 2025.

“The annual rate of inflation is determined by the positive contribution of all consumer price index components, except for regulated prices from the second quarter of 2024 and fuel prices for three consecutive quarters starting from the third quarter of 2023, where they will have an impact negative”, said Anca Dragu.