The price of bread could rise in autumn as the effects of the economic crisis are accentuated by the drought and frosts. A part of the crops could be compromised. It is a difficult year with repercussions for the economy and the population and the forecasts are gloomy, programs director at the Institute for Development and Social Initiatives “Viitorul” Viorel Chivriga stated in the program “15 minutes of economic realism,” IPN reports.

According to Viorel Chivriga, there are two risk factors that determine the development of the agricultural sector and have repercussions for the vegetal sector and international trade in agrifood products - the severe drought that has persisted for over half a year and the insufficient water reserves, and the frosts that affected the stone fruit trees and a part of crops.

If the drought continues, the vegetable and grain producers will also be affected and the most serious losses will be sustained by those who didn’t insure the crops, who are poorly equipped and who didn’t fully use the crop growing technology and also by the farmers who ventured to create multiannual plantations. “It is preferable to avoid the situation of 2003-2004, when the wheat harvest was slightly over 100,000 tones,” stated Viorel Chivriga.

He noted problems will also be encountered in increasing the supplies of grains even if the exports were stopped unofficially and the food security will be in question as all the states of the region that banned grain exports are in a similar situation. The drought and the crisis will also have an impact on grain processing, oil making, alcoholic beverages and honey production. As to exports, these will be lower in March-April than in January-February.

The expert concluded that the agricultural sector was saved from huge losses as the COVID-19 pandemic emerged when the agricultural processes are not so intense, but the decision makers in the period should have taken short-term decisions so as to protect the agricultural sector from risks. The risk factors remain the same year by year. They should have taken measures related to the insurance of crops, animals and birds, equipment and digitalization that would optimize agricultural activities. The authorities should also not neglect the migrants who returned home and should help and stimulate them to start a business.

The program was produced by the Institute for Development and Social Initiatives “Viitorul” in partnership with RFE/RL’s Moldovan Service.