At the Vilnius Eastern Partnership Summit of November 29, 2013, Moldova will enter a new stage of relations with the European Union. What will it bring and how will it influence the life of the Moldovans from the country and from abroad? What will each of us gain and what should we do for this benefit to become possible? How will the new conditions affect Moldova’s relations with other countries? The IPN Agency aims to look for answers to these and other questions worrying society, together with you, within the series of articles “Association with the EU to everyone’s understanding”.

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Within fair talks after the signing of the Association Agreement with the EU, the Transnistrian conflict may be solved. If the Transnistrian authorities comply with the conditions set by the EU, the Transnistrian region may avoid economic and political stagnation. The producers will have access to the European market, the regional infrastructure will start to develop and the people will be independent. Otherwise, the Transnistrian region risks becoming stagnant as Russia will lose its interest in this region when it is unable to stop Moldova from following the path to European integration, considers Radu Vrabie, program coordinator at the Foreign Policy Association.

According to the expert, the position of the companies and residents of Transnistria is very important because they can convince the region’s administration to comply with the Association Agreement with the EU and this will be a step towards reunifying the two banks of the Nistru River. “Otherwise, the region risks becoming isolated as it is 100% financially dependent on Russia,” said Radu Vrabie. He added that after the signing of the Association Agreement with the EU, the Kremlin will lose its interest in the Transnistrian region.

“If Ukraine and Moldova join the European Union, the Transnistrian region will have to comply. Russia will not finance this region only for the simple reason that it exists. I don’t believe in the intentions to join the Eurasian Union,” stated Radu Vrabie.

The behavior of the Moldovan authorities is fair and it depends only on the Transnistrian authorities what road they will choose further. The expert does not exclude certain provocations in the Transnistrian region, but said that they will be short-term ones. “The best decision of Tiraspol is to hold a dialogue with the Moldovan authorities and to accept the conditions imposed by the EU on Moldova,” he said.

Transnistrian issue expert Oazu Nantoi, program director at the Public Policy Institute, considers that the involvement of the EU would create preconditions for a positive dynamic in the Transnistrian conflict settlement talks. The signing of the Association Agreement, with the prospect of creating a free trade area, will put the Transnistrian companies before a dilemma. “The Transnistrian businesses will also benefit from the free trade, but the political factor blocks this process. Consequently, the dénouement will happen in a year or two. I hope it will be positive and the Transnistrian companies will profit from the provisions of this agreement and one more step will be taken towards reunifying the two banks of the Nistru,” said the analyst, adding that the EU is an important factor that has influence at international level, but it will not deal with Moldova’s problems if the authorities are indifferent.

Elena Bolshenko, IPN