Inflation will continue to be affected by both demand and supply shocks. The annual inflation rate will register a pronounced upward trajectory until the third quarter of 2022, after which it will decelerate, returning in the range of the target in the second quarter of 2023, the governor of the National Bank of Moldova (NBM) Octavian Armașu stated when presenting the inflation forecast adjustment.

The forecast adjustment is based on pro-inflationary factors, such as imported inflation, rising international food prices, energy and oil resources, positive domestic demand, a possible increase in electricity tariffs during the first and second quarters of 2022, and excise duty adjustment, along with the low annual base effect.

Octavian Armașu noted that the NBM will do its best to efficiently manage this extraordinary situation so as to continue to ensure the country’s macroeconomic and financial stability and to make sure the effects of inflation are felt by the citizens and the economy less. “The central bank’s approach is pragmatic, based on a complex analysis of the phenomena and developments in these uncertain times, not only at country level, but also at the level of each citizen, and this phenomenon is witnessed not only in the Republics of Moldova, but all over the world. Even the largest economies are now hit by unprecedented inflation,” stated the governor.

In January 2022, inflation was 16.6%, up 2.6 percentage points on the previous month, due to higher food prices (+7.6 points), core inflation (+4.2 points), regulated prices (+2.9 points) and fuel prices (+1.9 points).