The annual rate of inflation will have a downward trajectory during the next three quarters as well and will reach a minimum of 1.9%-2% in the fourth quarter of 2018. Afterward the trajectory will invert and inflation will rise to 6.5% in the third quarter of 2019. The main inflation will have a similar trajectory, said first deputy governor of the National Bank of Moldova Vladimir Munteanu, when presenting the inflation report in a news conference, IPN reports.
As to the components of inflation, Vladimir Munteanu said the growth rate of food prices will decrease in 2018, with the inversion of the trend in the second half of next year. The annual pace of regulated prices will diminish in the current quarter to minus 4.4%, taking into account the reduction in electric power and gas tariffs. Later, it will accelerate to over 10% in the second half of 2019. After the growth in the current quarter (US$70-80 barrels), the annual growth rate of fuel prices will have a downward trajectory throughout the forecast period. The annual rate of the Consumer Price Index decreased from 4.7% in March to 3.2% in June 2018, to under the interval of the National Bank’s target inflation (5%, plus-minus 1.5%).
As to the risks threatening the new inflation forecast, the first vice governor of the National Bank of Moldova said there are a series of internal risks related to the weather conditions, the harvest in the agricultural sector, insufficient lending to the economy and other factors, and also external risks. These are determined by commercial tensions between some of the states on the world arena, the evolution of the economies of the region and the fact that the countries with advanced economies became more restrictive to the emerging economies.
Vladimir Munteanu noted the rate of inflation in the immediate period will remain low and the National Bank, by is legal instruments, will do everything possible for the inflationist pressure to have a lesser impact on the population’s incomes and businesses.
