The situation in eastern Ukraine is developing very fast. “You can now expect a lot of things that seemed unlikely in the past”, said Victor Juc, director of the Institute for Legal, Political and Sociological Research, during an IPN debate. According to the expert, “a lot now depends on the position and calm of the Ukrainian side at the line of contact. Because they can be drawn into various traps that could lead to the transformation of the current borders to the detriment of Ukraine’s territorial integrity”.
According to the expert, it is clear that Russia will try to strengthen the status quo. “It is expected that these two territories won’t be recognized practically no one else. Maybe with the exception of Belarus or some states in the Pacific Ocean. And then they (Luhansk and Donetsk) will serve as permanent instruments of pressure on the Ukrainian authorities”, says Victor Juc explained.
Western states are united in the context of the crisis in eastern Ukraine. “Even if the Russian Federation expected some cracks within NATO, they did not occur. On the contrary, a rapprochement between NATO and the European Union is increasingly noticeable. The American presence is much more desirable in Europe than it was before. But the democratic world cannot propose (in response to Russia’s actions) anything other than certain sanctions”, Victor Juc remarked.
According to the expert, Russia calculated all the consequences of possible new sanctions from the West. It is noteworthy that “no preemptive sanctions have been imposed, as requested by President Zelensky”. Brussels is considering imposing sanctions in response to reprehensible actions by the Russian Federation. However, Victor Juc noted that the sanctions imposed by the West so far, such as those in 2014, have not only failed to create problems for the Kremlin, but “on the contrary, helped to strengthen some of the sectors of Russia’s economy”. Victor Juc admits that the Russian Federation is not afraid of any new sanctions announced by the West.
Asked how the situation in Donbas could develop further, Victor Juc considers that the federalization of Ukraine is more and more problematic in the new situation. “In the new format of negotiations, if this happens, the Russian Federation will insist that the Ukrainian authorities sit at the negotiating table with the territories or with the independent formations and then there can be no question of a federalization, even asymmetric. Neither the Ukrainian side will accept it, nor the Russian Federation, because that would mean surrender. The same is true of the population of the two territories, which is more inclined towards the Russian Federation. In such a context, a confederate form of organization may be possible. But confederations in general are very fragile”, said Victor Juc.
The debate was the 225th installment of the “Developing Political Culture” Series, run by IPN with the support of the Hanns Seidel Foundation.
