The world has changed since yesterday. This is how Marko Shevchenko, Ukraine’s ambassador to Moldova, commented on the Kremlin’s decision to recognize the “independence” of the two separatist republics in eastern Ukraine and officially consolidate its military presence there.
“Beginning with yesterday, the famous ‘ikhtamnyet’ meme is no longer true, as Russia officially decided to introduce their troops in the temporary occupied territories in eastern Ukraine. Up to this point, this occupation was hybrid and not recognized by the Kremlin”, the ambassador stated during an IPN debate on the matter.
“This new reality is now being assessed in Kyiv as well as in the Western capitals. This early morning, the President of Ukraine, Mr. Zelensky, underlined in an address to the nation that Ukraine does not recognize this decision. Ukraine considers this to be a serious violation of our country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”, said the diplomat.
“Of course, we don’t know all the details at this moment. We don’t know exactly what will happen in the State Duma and the Russian Federation Council, which are to consider and adopt the recognition of the so-called people’s republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. We don’t know yet what they will decide on the issue of borders. Because some say that the borders will be set on the so-called line of contact, the current de facto border, while others say the so-called republics will be recognized within their declared borders, which includes territories not currently under Russian occupation”, said Marko Shevchenko, adding that all these developments are watched closely in Kyiv for a subsequent plan of action.
For all its gravity, this scenario was to be expected, thinks the political scientist Victor Juc. “Opportunities now open up for Ukraine to reset its development. Clearly, Ukraine cannot rely on a military solution to recover its two territories. Ukraine is now free from the obligation to fulfill the Minsk agreements, in particular those relating to local elections, the constitutional reform, and the expansion of the economic and social space. Now Ukraine must keep calm and avoid being provoked, because otherwise it risks being lured into a large-scale war”, says Victor Juc. According to him, the hybrid assaults, especially those targeting Ukraine’s economy, have already hurt the country more than a potential military invasion.
What happens now in Ukraine is the scenario of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in development, says politologist Dionis Cenușa. “There are years of tough negotiations ahead between Kyiv and the separatist territories. But, like with the separatist territories in Georgia, I think Russia won’t obtain much out of this recognition”, he added, suggesting that no other “solid” state will support the decision.
The debate was the 225th installment of the “Developing Political Culture” Series, run by IPN with the support of the Hanns Seidel Foundation.
