Transnistrian referendum proved Russia is alone in its neoimperialistic desires – expert. IPN Analysis

The so-called referendum on independence, organized in the Transnistrian region of Moldova on September 17, ironically, fastens the settlement of the Transnistrian dispute in Moldova’s favor, Roman Mihaies, the head of the “European United Moldova” Association, master of political sciences and administrator of the web page www.conflict.md declares. Mihaies told Info-Prim Neo that Russia recognized via several officials that it organized and financed the referendum on independence of Transnistria, fact which constitutes a serious violation of international law and territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova. It is true that scared of the international feedback and possible sanctions, as a result of admission on the agenda of UN of the Transnistrian issue, it diminished the importance of the referendum through the statements of Smirnov, declaring it only a “consultative referendum”. Of course, the results of this “referendum” are not officially accepted and were not recognized by anyone, proof to this are the declarations of USA, EU, OSCE, Romania, Ukraine etc. According to the expert, the plebiscite had no chance to be recognized, because in order to be recognized by the international community it should have been constitutional and accepted by the government of the Republic of Moldova and by the most important international actors – UN, OSCE and EU. As well, the referendum can not be recognized because there is no democracy in Transnistria and the questions included in the ballot were unilateral and were not publicly debated. Region’s media, being strictly controlled by the separatist administration was engaged in a propagandistic action aiming at obtaining the desired results. Mihaies considers that the examples of Kosovo and Montenegro, used by the separatist regime in order to justify its separation from Moldova are incorrect. First of all, because the Transnistrian conflict has no religious or interethnic grounds but it is geopolitical. The statute of Kosovo region is not well determined. On the basis of the resolution of the Security Council the region is administrated by UN with the approval of Serbia, and Russia can block any resolution it does not like in the UN Security Council. More, the expert says, that the separation referendum in Montenegro, which was recognized by the international community, can not be invoked, because the old Constitution of Serbia and Montenegro from 2003 stipulates the fact that Montenegro has the right to organize a separation referendum. Mihaies also affirms that, beside the danger for the territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova, the integrity of Ukraine is also endangered, because the Transnistrian separatism, qualified as a Russian project is a negative example for the country’s Russian speaking regions. The “post-referendum” declarations of Ianukovici and Morozov, according to which Transnistria must have an autonomy statute within Moldova, shows that the Ukrainian political elite of all currents, has finally understood that the Transnistrian referendum is dangerous for Ukraine and this unconstitutional focus must be neutralized. According to the analyst, in light of the fact that Moldova is led by a party and a president who declares that Moldova will stay in CIS and will not join NATO, and who practically transformed the Russian language into a second state language, a question emerges – why does Russia want to divide Moldova? According to some suppositions, Putin is angry with Voronin because he did not sign the Kozak memorandum in 2003 and because of Moldova’s GUAM membership. Mihaies believes that the real reasons are other: Russia understands that its domination in administrating conflicts in the former USSR area comes to an end, including in Transnistria and it tries to force events, as long as it still integrally controls separatist regimes. If it can not totally control these countries, at least it can create some outposts, military bases, as Kaliningrad. Russia, which at present is only a regional power, according to the analyst, even if it has a lot of petroleum and natural gas, still understands that it can buy a part of the political elites from the former USSR member countries, which are now, as well as the Russian people, underdeveloped and can be compared to some African countries. It also understands that the desire of the ex-soviet countries to integrate into the EU and NATO is unstoppable and sooner or later their integration in the wealthier and more civilized Euro-Atlantic spaces will happen. In fact, the Russian people might also vote a government which would decide to integrate the country into NATO and the EU, in this way saving itself from poverty and isolation. Although it is paradoxical, the expert states, the organization of this referendum fastens the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict in Moldova’s favor. In order to show Russia that it is alone, the international community is firm regarding the “united Moldova” project. In this case, Russia must chose – either to change political actors in Transnistria, replacing the old-fashioned team of Smirnov-Antiufeev with a more civilized one, which would negotiate a real settlement agreement with the government from Chisinau, either to continue playing with the old actors, keeping as hostages region’s citizens and maintaining the short-life of the regime, but with the same final result – the region’s integration into the constitutional field of Moldova. In this case, it will require more time and more efforts on behalf of the international community, Mihai Roman considers, cited by Info-Prim Neo.