The weakening of the Moldovan-Romanian contacts, in parallel, with the strengthening of the pro-Russian rhetoric of the Socialists, can solidify the “unionist movement”, writes the political researcher Dionis Cenușa, in an analytical article for the IPN News Agency.
Public support for the idea of reunification with Romania is already approaching 35%. And the 2020 presidential fight against Igor Dodon can create bridges of open cooperation between conventional pro-EU forces and the unionist parties, which will result in the normalization of the “unionism”, Dionis Cenușa says.
Other 2020 forecasts released by the political researcher include the geopoliticalization of the oligarchy in Moldova.
He recalls that both the Socialists' interest in attracting Russian investors into the national economy and the legacy of the previous governments are inserting the geopolitical factor into the anti-oligarchic discourse. The revising of the contracts managing Chisinau International Airport by "Avia-Invest", at the end of 2019, brought to the attention the Russian oligarchs. Behind "Avia-Invest" is the offshore entity "Komaksavia Airport Invest" Ltd, which belongs to the Russian oligarch Andrei Gonchearenko. Another episode of permeation by the influence of the Russian oligarchs represents the investments of Igor Chaika, the son of Russia’s prosecutor general, in the media sector.
Also, Dionis Cenușa believes that the pro-EU discourse will return to the forefront. Activation of the Socialist diplomacy towards Moscow, including due to the celebration of the year of Russia in Moldova, may overdose the public space with antagonistic geopolitical content. Additionally, the slowdown in European financial support will intensify the desperate searching for alternatives in the Eurasian space, says the political scientist.
In his opinion, Romania will develop parallel dialogues with Moldova. While the Romanian side will insist on tough conditionality towards the central authorities, it may be tempted to set dialogues with the political opposition, civil society or local administrations unaffiliated with Socialists, estimates Dionis Cenuşa.
