Political pundit Ion Tăbârță suggests snap elections are unlikely simply because the competitors, especially the powerhouses of Moldovan politics, cannot afford another round after the financially burdensome campaign that ended on Sunday.
It’s mainly the Democrats’ call now, and Tăbârță thinks there is no guarantee they will be able to improve on their current score. “The Democratic leadership is known for its very calculated behavior”, remarked the pundit.
With the distribution of seats largely known, Tăbârță says there are two main scenarios and both involve the Democratic Party’s participation.
The first one would be a coalition between the Democrats and the Socialists, which Tăbârță thinks is the latter’s only chance of being part of the government. “Whereas before the elections there were some predictions that the Socialist Party could win enough seats to form a government by itself or with a few others, now it’s clear the Socialists won’t manage on their own. They don’t have the ability to influence other MPs into leaving their parties. They need as many as 16 votes, which is extremely difficult to achieve. Their only chance is to form a coalition with the Democrats, wrapped as ‘pro-Moldova’, with a national ideal message and some sort of geopolitical equilibristics. Perhaps with the Shor Party as well, perhaps not. But that’s another story”, says Ion Tăbârță.
The second and the more likely scenario in Tăbârță’s opinion would be a government voted in by the Democrats together with the Shor Party, plus the independents and some defectors, maybe from the Socialist group, as the NOW bloc is less likely to calve defectors in sufficient numbers. The pundit says there’s a good chance of a spectacular splinter within the Socialist ranks, reminiscent of the Communist and Lib-Dem defections to endorse a Democratic government in 2015.
Tăbârță doesn’t picture NOW participating in the government in some way, without ruling out individual defections. “If this bloc really wants to become an alternative to bringing Moldovan back on the European integration track, it should really dig in into the opposition and gradually, starting with the local elections and then the presidential one, get ready to the next legislative vote. They must gradually rebuild the pro-European right in Moldova”, stated the pundit.
Based on the preliminary results of last Sunday’s vote, the Socialist Party gets 35 seats in Parliament, followed by the Democrats with 30, the NOW bloc with 27, the Shor Party with 7, plus 3 independents from single-member constituencies.
