If Gazprom decided to cut off gas supplies to Moldova, the Transnistrian region will face a large-scale humanitarian crisis, thinks energy expert Sergiu Tofilat.
Tofilat says that Moscow’s next moves are impossible to predict. The best scenario would be if Gazprom continued to deliver gas to Moldova, until we switch to the winter formula beginning on October 1. Based on the calculation formula for the cold season, Moldova would pay about half of the spot market price. Another scenario considered by the authorities is a complete halt of gas supplies by Gazprom. Such a scenario would trigger a humanitarian crisis on the left side of the Nistru River, warns the expert.
“Putin cannot cut off gas supplies only for the right bank. If Russia ever decides to shut down the valve on us, the Transnistrian region will be hit the worst. They have no alternative; they have no possibility to buy gas elsewhere. Unfortunately, a humanitarian crisis will ensue there. People will also be left without gas and electricity, and the region’s budget will be cut in half. The region’s budget derives 40-50% of its revenues from the fact that they receive free gas, accumulating a debt that they will never pay off. They burn gas to produce electricity, metals, construction materials, and even vegetables - they have greenhouses heated with gas. Basically, they convert the gas into money that ends up in the region’s budget. They survive only due to the fact that they receive free gas from Moscow”, Sergiu Tofilat told a talk show on Vocea Basarabiei.
Sergiu Tofilat says that, although the Moldovan authorities insist that Chisinau will never pay the gas debt incurred by the Transnistrian region, from a legal point of view, the debt is owed by the Republic of Moldova and this will be used by Gazprom if our country moves too close to joining the European Union.
“For the authorities in Moscow and for Putin in particular, the interest is to sponsor this region so that they can squeeze the Republic of Moldova and influence our foreign policy. To finance this unconstitutional regime, Moscow supplies gas on credit and charges us for it. The Kuchurgan Power Plant alone burns a billion cubic meters of gas, as much as the whole of Moldova. But on paper this gas is contracted by Moldovagaz, and therefore Moldovagaz remains indebted to Gazprom. If the Republic of Moldova wants to join the EU, Gazprom will demand payment on the entire debt”, the energy expert said.
The Moldovan government recently hired a Norwegian firm and another one from UK to audit the debt owed by Moldovagaz to Gazprom for the gas consumed by the right bank. The audit should be completed by January 30, 2023.
