Russia’s withdrawal from CFE Treaty is a manifestation of force

The unanimous vote of the State Duma of the Russian Federation to withdraw from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) is a manifestation of force, a sign to the West that Russia is determined to regain the positions lost by the Kremlin in the 90s, says analyst Andrei Popov, executive director of the Foreign Policy Association. According to Popov, the decision is part of Russia’s foreign policy promoted during the last years and is designed to strengthen the positions of the Russian President Vladimir Putin in the talks with the West over the ratification of the adapted CFE Treaty signed in November 1999. Since 1999 until present, only four states - Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan – of the 30 signatories have ratified this document. At the same time, the NATO member states refuse to ratify the Treaty, invoking that Russia does not fulfill its Istanbul commitments to pull out its troops from Moldova and Georgia. Russia pretends that this is an artificial motive and refuses to comply. By denouncing this important document that regulates the location of conventional forces in Europe, Russia tries to force the West to ratify it unconditionally, Andrei Popov says. According to the analyst, in the wake of Russian pressure and concerns that the mechanisms for monitoring the relocation of troops in Europe will disappear, some of the NATO member states started to talk about the necessity of adopting a more flexible position. In particular, they argue that the existence of a legal document that regulates the use of conventional arms is much more important than the infringement of the commitments, which are more political, towards Moldova and Georgia. “The situation now depends on the way in which Russia’s decision will influence the NATO member states, if it will deepen or not the split inside the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Moscow made a high stake on this,” Popov said. Speaking about Moldova’s position on this subject, the analyst said that Chisinau follows a coherent policy and insists on the maintenance of the condition, reassuring that it will not ratify the CFE Treaty until Russia withdraws all its troops and munitions from the Transnistrian region. At the same time, Moldova promises that after withdrawn, the Russian forces will not be replaced with military contingents of other states, but only with civil observers and policemen under international mandate, Popov stressed. The cited source says that behind the scenes there are considered compromise formulas that would allow Russia to decently overcome the situation. One of the most debated decisions envisages “the reformation” of the Russia-dominated operation by supplementing the current Russian contingent in Moldova’s Transnistrian region with Western forces and shifting the operation under OSCE mandate. The implementation of this decision, which is discussed only informally and envisions that no country will have more than 30% of representatives in the contingent, would be a step forward. At the same time, this formula bears the risk that the Russian peacekeeping operation would become legal at international level and this would weaken the arguments regarding the unconditional and complete withdrawal of the Russian troops, on which NATO, with the U.S. ahead, and the official Chisinau insist. “It is not clear whether Moldova will keep the same position if NATO modifies its stance and accepts the compromise variant with Russia for the sake of saving the CFE Treaty, “Andrei Popov said. The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE Treaty), signed in 1990, by the 22 members of NATO and the former Warsaw Pact, is a landmark arms control agreement that established parity in major conventional forces between East and West. Following the demise of the Warsaw Pact and the enlargement of NATO in the 1990s, the CFE States Parties signed the Adaptation Agreement in 1999, to amend the CFE Treaty to take account of the evolving European geo-strategic environment. Ratification by NATO Allies of the Adapted Treaty is awaiting Russia's compliance with adapted CFE flank provisions and continued fulfilment of its Istanbul summit commitments regarding withdrawals of Russian forces from Georgia and Moldova Russia’s State Duma voted to withdraw from the CFE Treaty on November 7.