Parliamentary elections will take place in Moldova on November 30. Some of the political parties have already started, officially or not, electoral actions, while some haven't. IPN Agency set out to sketch the “portraits” of political parties as recorded by society's perception, before the official start of the electoral campaign. We consider this to be a useful exercise for Moldovan voters, who will gain additional and concentrated information that they may find useful on the day of elections, and also for the parties themselves, who will get some hints on how to improve their image. This portrait might also help to better understand what one or another Moldovan party wants to be and what it really is. To this goal, many experts have been asked to comment on the parties' chance to make it into the next Parliament, the way they fulfilled their previous electoral promises, the possible coalitions, topics, tactics and strategies they might employ to get the voters' attention. Political parties are presented in order of the number of seats they hold in the current Legislative and of the results obtained during the previous parliamentary elections in 2010.
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The Liberal Democratic Party of Moldova now has a largely positive image, but some failures of the government and the fact that the party's leader Vlad Filat was removed as Prime Minister undermine its image. Nonetheless, PLDM could obtain a good result in the election on November 30, even if repeating the 2010 success could prove an ambitious goal.
Analyst Denis Cenusa says PLDM will clear the electoral threshold and the poll results so far make him predict a result of around 20%, which could decrease or increase according to the geopolitical situation. He says that PLDM is one of the main governing parties and any failures before elections will influence the voters' decision. Denis Cenusa sees the party as having a good image thanks to the relations with the EU, but Russia's actions might take away some votes. The analyst doesn't think PLDM will endorse the idea of an electoral bloc, but will certainly need allied parties to form a governing coalition.
Ion Tabarta, of the Institute of Consultancy and Political Analysis “Politocon”, deems PLDM the main governing party and one that kept its promises regarding the Europeanization of the country. Meanwhile, its image suffers because of well-orchestrated campaigns against it. Besides, some local opportunistic leaders have incurred further damage. Overall, the positives still outweigh the negatives in the party's image. The expert stresses that the party will have to purge its ranks during the electoral campaign in order to improve its image. Tabarta thinks that theoretically PLDM may best its 2010 result. However, he notes that then PLDM gained many votes outside its electorate in the last minute. Being in power eroded the party's image. He sees the PLDM obtaining between 25% and 35% of votes, depending on the success of its campaign.
Political analyst Olga Nicolenco, says that until a few days ago, PLDM had a good image, successfully restored after some representation failures. However, she thinks that the lack of time until the elections will speed up the healing of the latest fractures within the Lib-Dems' team, which appeared at a very untimely moment. Nicolenco is sure that PLDM will be in the next Parliament with a strong result, although maintaining the same number of seats may prove too ambitious, with 50/50 odds right now. The analyst notes that should PLDM succeed, it will be able to get hold of the most important functions in the state.
Speaking about the Lib-Dems' strengths and weaknesses, Denis Cenusa sees the change of the informal leader of the party as a an advantage. According to him, Iurie Leanca, the current Prime Minister, asserted himself as an informal leader of the party and achieved some success. The weak point, according to Cenusa, is Vlad Filat's tarnished image. Denis Cenusa thinks his overall image will create difficulties in his further promotion.
Tabarta says that PLDM's main assets are the fulfilling of EU-related promises and that is has two electoral “engines” in Vlad Filat and Iurie Leanca, as well as a strong network of local structures. The vulnerable point is that it will be hit harshly both from within and without.
Olga Nicolenco is of the opinion that PLDM's virtues are the capacity to strengthen in difficult moments, the party organizations in most of the localities, political pragmatism, the capacity for negotiation and compromise, the organizational skills of the team, media resources and a clear logo. The minuses are temporary differences within the team, sometimes the excessive focus on the party head at the expense of other party leaders and weak social networking.
Denis Cenusa says that although late, the party managed to keep its promises and achieved the liberalization of the visa regime with the EU in 2014 if not in 2012, as promised, but did it nonetheless and Lib-Dems' are credited with main effort. Signing the Association Agreement, while not a direct promise, was something to be expected on the basis of the party's pro-European messages.
Olga Nicolenco agrees that removing the visa restrictions and signing the Association Agreement with the EU are unquestionable achievements, of course shared with the former and current governing allies. The expert says that while it was only over the last year that the government worked seriously, she doesn't so much regret the fewness of the implemented projects but rather the large number of failed ones.
Denis Cenusa expects PLDM to rely during the electoral campaign on messages about Moldova's relations with the EU and submitting the request to join the European Community. As regards electoral tactics, he thinks PLDM will focus on communication with voters in rural areas.
Ion Tabarta also thinks that the key electoral message will be the European integration, strong relations with the EU and USA, but also about education and creating new jobs.
Olga Nicolenco agrees that PLDM will focus on European integration, modern education, agriculture, the Transnistrian conflict, e-government (for young voters) and modern economic development. She thinks PLDM could employ a door-to-door, person-to-person campaign, in addition to stronger presence on social networks.
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As part of this campaign, IPN has already published a review of the experts' opinions on the Communists' Party of Moldova.
Mariana Galben, IPN
