Radu Vrabie: To get positive results in settling the Transnistrian conflict, the Government should implement the laws passed within the Moldova-EU Action Plan. Info-Prim Neo survey

Info-Prim Neo News Agency has launched an opinion poll on the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict among leaders of political parties, representatives of the civil society, and opinion shapers from both banks of the Nistru. The survey is aimed at finding out viewpoints that could contribute to the improvement of the present situation. All the participants were asked the same two questions. This time, the answers are given by Radu Vrabie, program coordinator at the Foreign Policy Association. [ - How can the Transnistrian dispute be solved in your opinion? In what way, through what mechanisms and during what terms is a settlement possible? ] - In my opinion, settling the Transnistrian conflict depends on very many factors. Some of them depend on Moldova. Others, as the interests of external actors, are far beyond of our capacity of influence. Among the foreign factors, three are of crucial importance: Russia, the European Union and Ukraine. Although positive developments have been seen in enhancing the EU's and Ukraine's involvement in the efforts of settling the conflict, however, those positive influences are not able yet to counterbalance the role played by Moscow. Or, the Russian Federation does not show signs it would want a viable settlement, because that would mean losing the control over Moldova's future. Obviously Russia does not want to lose Moldova, especially together with Transnistria, from its sphere of influence and wants a settlement maintaining and even enhancing the control exerted upon Chisinau's foreign policy. I see no reasons for optimism the situation could change in the short term. But I believe, in case Moldova makes everything depending on it – reforms and europeanization of the country – in several years and supported by the EU, it could fundamentally change the domestic context for the settlement... [ - How do you think, how efficient and relevant to the created situation are the steps taken by the administration of Moldova at present? When do you think the effort made by the authorities will begin to produce results and what results we can expect? ] - Solving the Transnistrian conflict is a priority for the Moldovan leadership. Yet the chosen way is difficult to accomplish, as Chisinau sees Russia as the main or even the only key to solve the conflict and counts on the bilateral relationship with Moscow. Or, Russia shows no sign it would want a viable settlement for the conflict and, in this regard, the direct talks will not bring the result expected by Chisinau. On the other hand, the confidence-building initiatives aired by President Vladimir Voronin may solve certain socio-economic problems for the inhabitants on the Nistru's left bank, yet they cannot be carried out, because the Tiraspol administration politicizes the working groups. In order to get positive results for Moldova, the Government should implement all the laws passed within the Moldova-EU Action Plan and should try to secure as much as possible external support, especially from the EU.