Parliamentary elections will take place in Moldova on November 30. Some of the political parties have already started, officially or not, electoral actions, while some haven't. IPN Agency set out to sketch the “portraits” of political parties as recorded by society's perception, before the official start of the electoral campaign. We consider this to be a useful exercise for Moldovan voters, who will gain additional and concentrated information that they may find useful on the day of elections, and also for the parties themselves, who will get some hints on how to improve their image. This portrait might also help to better understand what one or another Moldovan party wants to be and what it really is. To this goal, many experts have been asked to comment on the parties' chance to make it into the next Parliament, the way they fulfilled their previous electoral promises, the possible coalitions, topics, tactics and strategies they might employ to get the voters' attention. Political parties are presented in order of the number of seats they hold in the current Legislative and of the results obtained during the previous parliamentary elections in 2010.
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The Socialists’ Party of Moldova could attract the Communists’ far left voters, but won’t accede to the Parliament unless in a bloc. The party is trying to build the image of the most pro-Russian party in order to get the votes of the Russian electorate.
Political expert Olga Nicolenco says that judging by leader Igor Dodon, the party is a textbook example of a one-man party. PSRM looks like a malicious, provocative, venomous and spiteful man. The expert thinks PSRM could make it into the Parliament only in an alliance or bloc. Its weak spots are the lack of new and noted people, the demagogic and populistic rhetoric, and the aggressive approach to people, ideas and actions of any kind. Nicolenco says PSRM’s promises stand out through their destructiveness and hopes they never materialize. She expects the Socialists to employ manipulative messages and populist speeches. She labeled PSRM’s campaign a foreign country’s financial-electoral invasion, with the party not even realizing it has become a second hand one.
Political analyst Nicolae Negru says that many voters see PSRM as a traitorous party that split from PCRM. Igor Dodon probably realized this and radicalized the party, although he said he left PCRM precisely because of its radical position. “This radical position he lamented there, he advanced even further regarding the Bolshevization of Moldova and the betrayal of its interests, by putting the party's interests first”, said Negru. According to him, Dodon’s anticipation of some of Moscow’s moves means he is linked to Russian decision-makers that undertake hostile actions towards Moldova. Negru admits some may like it, especially those endorsing Russia’s actions, but the majority doesn’t. This way, PSRM could attract PCRM’s radical supporters, disenchanted with the Communists’ change of attitude regarding the country’s foreign policy. Polls show PSRM is unlikely to clear the electoral threshold, but things can change. Negru doesn’t rule out that the Socialists could get 4-5% and be satisfied that they got more than predicted, even without obtaining any seats.
Political expert Denis Cenusa thinks PSRM is seen very differently by different electoral groups. The majority sees it as a bad party that demonized European integration and promoted “Moldovenism”, in a radical way that repelled people. PSRM would need a bloc to make it into the Parliament, but Cenusa doesn’t think any of the parties with good odds to pass the threshold will want to ally with the Socialists. He doesn’t rule out that several smaller parties could join up instead. He expects PSRM to rely on tough messages in the campaign, but this will only marginalize the party. Despite attracting “Moldovenist” and pro-Russian voters, it went too radical and this will hinder its electoral campaign. The Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan Customs Union will probably be the main electoral topic, complemented by criticism against the EU and the government with a focus on economic problems and the deterioration of relations with Russia and its impact on the country.
According to Victor Juc, of the Institute for Legal and Political Research of the Moldovan Academy of Sciences, PSRM is a dangerous and anti-national party that tries to speculate on joining the Customs Union. He acknowledges that there is massive support for the party from Russia, but after it doesn’t gain any seats, it will join the other small parties led by former Communists. Juc thinks PSRM is more dangerous than PCRM because it is supported from abroad to derail Moldova’s European path. It has some supporters, despite its bad image, but not as many as the party leaders claim. The expert doesn’t see PSRM getting more than 2% of votes. As regards an electoral bloc, there are two options. The first is a coalition with PCRM, but Juc doesn’t think Vladimir Voronin will give Dodon a ride to the Parliament. The second is a bloc of leftist parties that have about 1% of votes each, but the threshold for a bloc is 12%. Given this, Juc expects PSRM to run on its own.
Ion Tabarta, of the Institute of Political Consultancy and Analysis “Politicon”, says PSRM tries to look as the most pro-Russian party and has an imbalanced message that narrows its electoral pool. He doesn’t rule out a coalition of smaller parties, but thinks PSRM will run alone. It could want to attract smaller parties to get more Russian voters. Tabarta expects PSRM will get no seats unless something major happens within the PCRM to damage its image and its voters migrate to PSRM.
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As part of this campaign, IPN has already published a review of the experts' opinions on the Communists' Party, the Liberal Democratic Party, the Democratic Party , the Liberal Party, the Liberal Reformists Party. and the Renaissance Party.
Mariana Galben, IPN
