"Regardless, the time bomb continues to tick, which means that the destruction process takes place both inside and outside the governing alliance..."
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Some viewed the October 20 local elections as a cohabitation resistance test at the national level of the Socialist Party of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) and the ACUM bloc, comprised of two components - Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) and Platform Dignity and Truth Party (PPDA). Until recently, the PSRM and ACUM were incompatible political entities. Even though the local elections are not over yet, it's not too early to say with some degree of certainty that the elections did not serve as a detonator for the coexistence of the ruling coalition. Regardless, the "time bomb" continues to tick, which means that the destruction process takes place both inside and outside the governing alliance. How will the second round of the election race influence the bomb's "tick-tock" rhythm?
National government’s boat in Chișinău Bay
The main prize of the local election continues to be the seat of the general mayor of Chișinău, because almost all other important administrative centers in the country have already been divided among the electoral competitors after the first election round and because the entity that controls the capital controls how the entire country will be governed. The current situation is practically unprecedented. Both candidates who compete against each other in the November 3 elections are representatives of the central power, respectively, have to solve some unprecedented tasks: on the one hand, to win the City Hall, on the other hand, not to rock too hard the national government's boat, at least for the time being, while both entities want to be aboard this vessel.
Usual situation with unusual tasks
At first glance, the PSRM candidate, Ion Ceban, is better equipped to face this challenge. With small exceptions, he does not attack his ACUM bloc rival and, in the second round, he continues to use the same technical approach of addressing electoral issues, as well as the same calm and tolerant demeanor while communicating with the public. The difference between this and the behavior from the previous election race that took place more than a year ago, when the same two candidates competed for the capital's mayoral seat, is more than visible and begs the question regarding the reasons for this metamorphosis.
One of the reasons is that Ion Ceban and the PSRM obtained a good result in the first round, that is 40.19% of the vote, compared to Andrei Năstase's 31.08%. However, this results seems to be too close to the acceptable limit for the Socialists and for Ion Ceban. This has been previously proven at the 2018 elections, when Ceban got more votes in the first election round, then lost in the second round, when Năstase secured more votes. By and large, a left-wing candidate has never won the mayoral elections in the capital since Independence.
This time, in order to turn the tables, Ion Ceban has to accomplish two unusual things: 1) to attract more voters than just the PSRM's loyal and disciplined base; 2) to prevent as much as possible the transfer of votes to Năstase from first round mayoral hopefuls Dorin Chirtoacă, Octavian Țîcu and from other important centre and right-wing candidates, whose votes combined can offer Năstase a large surplus. Ion Ceban is doing just that.
"Gentile cat..."
Firstly, his new image and message are mainly addressed to the centrist segment of voters, centrist in the sense of their training and political beliefs, or even to voters who are outside politics, who vote based on reason rather than emotions and, without doubt, lack the "Political Talibanism" approach to politics which is characteristic to faithful supporters of political parties. The "compliments" and proposals that Ion Ceban makes to former mayoral hopefuls and their supporters fulfill the same role. This means that Ceban and PSRM are consciously and methodically focusing on the center-right segment of the political spectrum of potential supporters that Năstase and the ACUM bloc could rely on.
Secondly, Ion Ceban insists, wherever and whenever he has the opportunity, on the collaboration between PSRM and ACUM, which in total have secured over 80% of the seats of the new Municipal Council. On the one hand, this is a rational proposal, because no other majority configuration is theoretically possible. In this regard, the PSRM and ACUM are also sentenced to collaborate at the Chișinău level. This is the most probable post-electoral scenario, or else snap CMC elections are imminent. On the other hand, agreeing to this proposal before the second round of elections greatly disadvantages Andrei Năstase and the ACUM bloc, who risk losing potential unionist voters, who account for around 20% of the electorate and are known for their categorical opposition towards the leaders, ideas and actions of PSRM.
"Jupiter is angry"... on purpose
This electoral tactic allows Ion Ceban to have the initiative in the dispute between the two competitors. Andrei Năstase is put in a position where he emotionally reacts to the opponent's "calm" messages, and this makes him look to many the like the god “Jupiter [who] is angry and, therefore, is wrong”, as the Latin proverb says.
In turn, Andrei Năstase has no choice but to categorically reject a possible collaboration with the PSRM in the CMC, operating with a hypothetical voting method based on the merit of each project, thus, considering the risk that he will have to explain himself after the elections. For the same reason, Năstase adopted, seemingly on purpose, a less conciliatory, almost aggressive behavior in relation to his opponent and the PSRM as a whole, even if it could rock or even flip the boat of the central ruling coalition, whose components signed a "nonaggression pact" before the election season. Additionally, Andrei Năstase's tendency to use in his favor the geopolitical, pro-Romanian and pro-European levers is obvious. This rhetoric pleases the unionist voters, whom he is counting on. In particular, he presents himself as the candidate with real capabilities to attract foreign investment for the municipality's needs, as opposed to his opponent. Andrei Năstase's electoral tactic is to avoid direct debates on "technical" and "household" issues, on which Ion Ceban is considered to be better prepared. "The time of the "householders", who for 30 years brought the city to a deplorable state, has passed" - is his routine reply in these situations.
"The waves of the Danube" - the PSRM-ACUM anthem
Although they don't always recognize it, both candidates use different electoral levers, which serve their political interests. For example, this arsenal includes the actions of Ion Ceban meant to spark a dispute between Andrei Năstase, the ACUM bloc and unionist voters. The real purpose of this tactic is to deny the transfer of power in the capital into the hands of political opponents. The same goal is pursued by Andrei Năstase when he openly feeds the political resentment of some voters against the PSRM. Both groups manage their local electoral affairs by also taking into account the perspective of the relations within the governing alliance, whose components pursue their own political interests, which, in addition to the continuation of common activity, allow both the extension of their political influence, particularly in the capital, as well as the destruction of the current ruling coalition. The parliamentary and extra-parliamentary opposition also ensures that the process goes in the "right direction".
Valeriu Vasilică, IPN
