Post-electoral conclusions. Op-Ed by Igor Boțan

“The data and reasons presented…are sufficient and suggestive for the political parties that have a particular organizational and political potential to plead for the formation of eventual coalitions for running in the presidential and parliamentary elections...”
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Party system

The general local elections of November 5, 2023 was the eighth edition of local elections after the declaring of the Republic of Moldova’s independence. All the 60 political parties written in the register of the Public Services Agency (PSA), which was reviewed after the constitutionality of the Shor Party was checked and this party was struck off the register, were admitted to these elections. For comparison, it should be highlighted that the previous local elections, of October 20, 2019, involved 46 parties. This way, we see that during four years, the number of political parties rose by 15 or by 25%. The rise in the number of parties is due to the decision passed by the Constitutional Court (CC), which declared unconstitutional the Law on political parties’ provisions concerning the minimum number of members - 4,000 - and the minimum number of  local offices, with at least 120 members in at least half of the  territorial-administrative units of the second level. The diminution of the minimum number of members for registering parties – from 4,000 per 1,000 to the exclusion of the provisions concerning the number of local branches – caused the number of parties to rise by ¼.

In the recent local elections, 37 out of the 60 parties or 62% of the total number became involved in the electoral competition. In the previous elections, 28 out of 46 parties took part in elections, This is practically the same percentage, approximately 61%. This way, it is confirmed that the local elections usually involve ½ to ¾ of the registered parties, which is more than in the parliamentary elections.  It is noteworthy that the recent elections involved all the 15 parties registered in the period after the previous elections, meaning that the newly registered parties are active. Respectively, a series of the old parties registered a decade ago or even earlier become inactive. In general, the number of parties registered after the declaring of the independence of the Republic of Moldova total 113. Consequently, almost half of these parties disappeared.

It should be noted that the political parties of the Republic of Moldova, according to the statutory and programmatic documents, cover the widest range of doctrines/ideologies. In a nuanced manner, the parties of the left-right offer the citizens the possibility of identifying themselves as part of these or of being represented through participation in elections. This way, from doctrinaire-ideological viewpoint: six parties declare themselves socialist; 14 – social-democratic; 6 – social-liberal; 4 – liberal; 6 – people’s; 4 – Christian-democratic; 6 – conservative; 1 – ecologist; 1 – progressive. The other 12 parties do not declare any ideological or doctrinaire affiliation.

If we refer to the geopolitical preferences concerning regional integration, based on the same statutory documents, we have the following picture: 30 parties (50%) plead for the Republic of Moldova’s integration into the Republic of Moldova into the European Union (EU); four – for balanced relations with the East and the West; two - for integration into the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). It should be noted that 22 parries, approximately 1/3, do not exhibit any geopolitical preference. Out of the parties that plead for European integration: five also plead for the union with Romani; six – for entry into NATO too; four – for union with Romania and also for entry into NATO.

Potential of political parties

The general local elections are a field for testing different aspects of the potential of political parties – organizational, financial, administrative, and electoral. Evidently, the parties that do not contend in elections estimate their potential as inexistent. Instead, the parties that take part in the competition for the local elections, by their participation, realize their organizational potential – the capacity to register candidates in a particular number of constituencies. The other aspects of the potential of parties can be deduced from the financial reports and the final results of elections given that the local elections are political-administrative ones. This way, the election of mayors reveals the administrative potential of parties, while the election of district councilors, on lists of candidates who are not much known to the voters (political vote) – the electoral potential for the parliamentary elections.

The table below shows the most important aspects of the potential of the political parties of the Republic of Moldova: A – capacity to register candidates in the 34 constituencies of the second level for the election of district/municipal councilors and in 896 constituencies of the first level for the election of local councilors and mayors; B – percentage of seats of district/municipal councilors based on the political vote for slates; C – percentage of seats of local councilors in localities; D – percentage of elected mayors.    

The table above shows that only approximately half of the parties that competed in the elections demonstrated particular potential, either to successfully contend in the future electoral competition – presidential and parliamentary elections – or to form coalitions with other parties that share the same values and political objectives. In this regard, it is noteworthy that the parties that plead for European integration polled together 63.2% of the political vote for the lists of candidates in the constituencies of the second level. The parties that, according to the statutory documents, plead for balanced relations with the East and the West – the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM), the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova (PCRM) and the Revival Party – gained together 25.5% of the political vote. Respectively, the parties that do not exhibit their political preferences obtained together 11.3% of the political vote.

Results of local elections – suggestions for algorithm for forming coalitions

The data and reasons presented above are sufficient and suggestive for the political parties that have a particular organizational and political potential to plead for the formation of eventual coalitions for running in the presidential and parliamentary elections.
 
If interest is manifested in forming alliances in order to support the most powerful candidates in the presidential elections, the formation of coalitions can be contingent on the agreement to maintain these coalitions in the next, parliamentary elections. For example, if we look retroactively, such a solution would have been useful for maintaining the ACUM Bloc. The Party “Dignity and Truth Platform” could have supported the candidate of the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), who was considered to have the biggest chances in the presidential elections of 2020, in exchange for joint participation, in an electoral bloc, in the parliamentary elections of 2021.

As regards eventual coalitions for parliamentary elections, these are exceptionally important and the electors therefore prefer to vote usefully, which is for parties with the biggest chances so as not to disperse the vote. In the parliamentary elections, the formation of collations is also recommended for avoiding the loss of votes owing to the use of the electoral proportional representation system, especially because the election threshold remained rather high – 5% for individual participation and 7% for electoral blocs.