Political evolutions from Kiev might affect the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict

The present political situations from Ukraine could introduce new elements into the settlement process of the Transnistrian dispute. The possible appointment as prime-minister of the leader of the Regions Party (RP), Victor Ianukovici or the possibility that new parliamentary elections in Ukraine will be organized could lead to canceling the Moldovan-Ukrainian customs agreement, initiated at the beginning of March and also changing Kiev’s position on the Transnistrian issue. [“Sky is clouding” over Kiev] After the Parliamentary elections in Kiev held on March 26, 2006, no electoral candidate of those 40 parties managed to obtain the majority of votes. Although the most of votes were given to RP, a pro-Moscow party, a coalition was created after the turnouts of the elections were made public. The coalition included Our Ukraine Party (OUP) supporting the president Viktor Iuscenko, the Block of Iulia Timosenko (BIT) and of the former Ukrainian prime-minister and the Socialist Party headed by Alexandr Moroz. However, the members of the coalition could not get along and Moroz left the coalition passing to another coalition – RP and the Communist Party. The “anti-crisis coalition”, as it was named, proposed Ianukovici for the position of prime-minister, variant that was not accepted by Iuscenko. The situation has only two solutions – to accept Ianukovici as prime-minister or to arrange for new elections. [A new turn is very possible] The Ukrainian political crisis will have without doubts some consequences on the Transnistrian conflict. As it is already known, Kiev introduced the new customs regime at the Moldovan-Ukrainian border on March 4 as a result of a joint declaration of the Moldovan and Ukrainian president and now all goods from the Transnistrian region are being transited only on the base of Moldovan customs documents. This action was welcomed by EU, USA and international organizations but on the other hand it angered Moscow, which qualified it as “blockade of Transnistria”. It is clear that Iuscencko made this decision in order to strengthen his pro occidental standpoint in Brussels and Washington. Even if during his visit to Moldova the Ukrainian foreign minister assured the president Voronin that “after a new parliamentary coalition will be created, the present foreign affairs direction will not be changed”. This situation could have a different turn in case when RP and its leader Victor Ianukovici will win the battle. This supposition is confirmed by the recent declarations of Taras Cernovil, RP MP in Kiev’s Rada, according to whom “a new government headed by Ianukovici could cancel the sanctions against Transnistria”. According to Cernovil, RP did not support these “sanctions” and it will cancel them. In case RP will win the confrontation, Moscow’s standpoints will come first in the list of foreign affairs priorities of Ukraine, against the opinions of Chisinau, Washington and Brussels. [Unfavorable foreign affairs] It is clear that in the aforementioned situation and in the context of unclear relationships with Russia, Moldova will be isolated in the East. On January 1, 2007, Romania is preparing to join EU. At the same time, the European choice of Moldova is very uncertain, at least in the near future. Although Chisinau mimes successes and accomplishments aimed at convincing the foreign community about its absolute integration will, Brussels is still rather skeptical. Although some European officials do not deny the validity of the integration possibility, they try to specify that it could happen not very soon. The talks on the facilitation of the visa regime seem not to satisfy Chisinau’s expectations. Until now, Moldova obtained only the promise of creating a joint visa issuance center. [New spin of Chisinau] It seems that the government from Chisinau understands the possible risks of the evolutions in Kiev. This fact is proven by the declarations of the president Vladimir Voronin at a press conference that took place last week. Referring to the political events from Ukraine and the possible consequences over the Transnistrian dispute, the head of state declared that in the last time “very good and stable contacts” have been established with Kiev, especially on the Transnistrian problem, but he expressed at the same time his hope that Ukraine will remain “a reliable partner” of Moldova. In this way, Voronin showed his uncertainty about Kiev’s loyalty in case of some changes on the political scene of the neighbor country and he knows that the situation will certainly be different. If the political situation of Ukraine will develop in the named direction, Chisinau will be probably forced to change its foreign affairs strategy. When the West is not offering clear perspectives and in the East the situation is changing, Moldova could be forced to renew its old relationships with Russia and Kiev in order to keep chances for solving the Transnistrian problem. These assumptions are confirmed by the declarations of Voronin at the same press conference regarding the Moldovan-Russian and Moldovan-Romanian relationships which according to many analysts proves a new spin of the political leadership from Chisinau.