Parliamentary elections will take place in Moldova on November 30. Some of the political parties have already started, officially or not, electoral actions, while some haven't. IPN Agency set out to sketch the “portraits” of political parties as recorded by society's perception, before the official start of the electoral campaign. We consider this to be a useful exercise for Moldovan voters, who will gain additional and concentrated information that they may find useful on the day of elections, and also for the parties themselves, who will get some hints on how to improve their image. This portrait might also help to better understand what one or another Moldovan party wants to be and what it really is. To this goal, many experts have been asked to comment on the parties' chance to make it into the next Parliament, the way they fulfilled their previous electoral promises, the possible coalitions, topics, tactics and strategies they might employ to get the voters' attention. Political parties are presented in order of the number of seats they hold in the current Legislative and of the results obtained during the previous parliamentary elections in 2010.
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The Liberal Party has a strong electoral core, just like the Communists' Party, but its voters come with both advantages and disadvantages. PL will probably be part of the next Parliament after the elections on November 30, with a number of seats equal or smaller than obtained in 2010. Although the failures of its vice president Dorin Chirtoaca as Mayor of Chisinau stain PL's image, experts think that his election as president of the party would bring in a few more votes.
Political analyst Nicolae Negru says that PL currently gives a contradictory impression. When it was in power, the party positioned itself as an ally of the Democratic Party and fought against the leader of the Liberal-Democrats Vlad Filat. PL leader Mihai Ghimpu struck harshest in PLDM, trying to look uncompromising towards corruption. According to Negru, the friendliness towards PDM and tolerance in respect of some of its actions may have damaged PL's image. He added that PL also lost points because of its behavior during the formation of a new government, when it suggested quitting the government. “Ghimpu had made a scheme according to which democratic forces should yield the power to the Communists for 10 years. Then the division of the party and the leader's actions confused some supporters. Ghimpu's behavior didn't look liberal at all and damaged the party's image. But, perhaps, there are some voters who endorse precisely this kind of behavior”, said Negru.
Electoral strategist Olga Nicolenco thinks that PL has recovered pretty well after the troubles it went through more than a year ago, although it can be assumed that not all of its local organizations survived the crisis. Nicolenco estimates that PL's odds of making it into the next Legislative are solid, especially as the performance of PL MPs has been improving.
Victor Juc, of the Institute for Legal and Political Research of the Moldovan Academy of Sciences, noted that the Liberal Party is one of the few that managed to revamp themselves. In 1994, the Reform Party, as it was called back then, had a strong image and it was a surprise it didn't pass the electoral threshold. It was not until 2006 when Dorin Chirtoaca joined the party, that its rating improved. Juc says that the refusal to participate in the creation of the new government coalition alienated some voters, while the Liberal Reformists Party appeared as savior of the coalition and of the European path. PL now looks as if it supports the government and also as if it is in opposition.
Ion Tabarta, of the Institute of Consultancy and Political Analysis “Politicon”, is of the opinion that PL's image is about the same as in 2010 and doesn't see it in an electoral bloc. “They have a behavior like the Communists, radical in some situations. They will boost their electoral result if they let Dorin Chirtoaca head the party”, he said. The expert is confident PL will pass the electoral threshold unless something dramatic happens within the party. He also notes that, just like the Communists, PL has a strong and loyal core of voters. This is an advantage and also a disadvantage. The former because the party has an assured number of votes and the latter because they won't get many more.
Political anlyst Denis Cenusa says PL has a balanced image thanks to the fact that it removed itself from government and from everything it was criticized for. However, local government, Dorin Chirtoaca's work at the helm of the Chisinau City Hall is belabored and is burden for the party. Denis Cenusa doesn't think that PL will create en electoral bloc. He expects the Liberals to negotiate a coalition after acceding to the Parliament. Major figures have left the party and there was talk about traitors. Combined with Mihai Ghimpu authoritarian leadership, this might have driven away some voters. Nonetheless, Cenusa predicts PL will obtain an electoral result equal or slightly pooerer to the one from 2010.
Olga Nicolenco highlighted PL's loyal voters, clear message and mayorship of Chisinau as its main advantages. Meanwhile, the selection of MP candidates is a weakness. In the electoral campaign, the party will focus on topics like European integration, fight against corruption, economic development and the relations with neighboring Romania and Ukraine.
On the other side, Victor Juc thinks PL's main problem in the fall elections is precisely the lack of a clear message. The party could of course bring out European integration, but it will face the counterargument that it didn't participate in the creation of the government coalition. If others opposed, like PL, different forces could have come to power. PL's second message is anticorruption rhetoric. Still, there is a counterargument here as well. PL was part of two alliances in this Legislative and tolerated corruption, while some Liberal leaders have stained reputations, such as former Minister of Transports Anatol Salaru.
Negru says that according to polls, PL might make it to the next Parliament, but the predicted chances are at the limit of the error margin. One of the dangers for PL is that some voters haven't noticed the split between PL and the Liberal Reformists Party. Negru admits the theoretical possibility of a liberal electoral bloc and thinks Mihai Ghimpu should consider this option. However, given Ghimpu's personality, it's highly improbable, thinks Negru.
Regarding PL's possible electoral strategies, Ion Tabarta says PL could obtain good results from striking in Vlad Filat and PLDM because the Liberal leader has build his messages by attacking Filat.
Victor Juc is sure that PL will pass the threshold because it has had a core of voters since 2005 and will obtain good results with their help. He rules out the possibility of PL creating a bloc with someone else, because the party doesn't need a trailer. The only possible ally is the National Liberal Party, but it wouldn't be very useful. Victor Juc favors a broad coalition between the Democratic Party, the Liberal-Democrats, the Liberals and the Liberal Reformists. According to him, it's the only way for the current government to obtain over 60% of votes or even a constitutional majority, but expects parliamentary parties to rule out a coalition with Mihai Ghimpu because of his personality. The expert predicts PL will lose 2-3% of its voters to PLR and will get about 10% of votes.
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As part of this campaign, IPN has already published a review of the experts' opinions on the Communists' Party of Moldova, the Liberal-Democratic Party of Moldova and the Democratic Party of Moldova.
Mariana Galben, IPN
