Parliamentary elections will take place in Moldova on November 30. A part of the political parties already started, officially or unofficially, the electoral activities, while others haven’t yet. IPN Agency set the goal of defining the ‘portraits’ of the political organizations fixed in the perception of society, before the official start of the election campaign. We think it is a useful exercise for the voters in Moldova, who will obtain additional concentrated information that can help them make their choice on the election day, and for the parties themselves as they will obtain additional indexes for correcting their image. This picture can also help to better understand what a Moldovan party is in reality and what it pretends to be. For the purpose, a number of experts were asked to pronounce on parties’ chances of entering the future legislative body, how they fulfilled the promises made in the previous elections, possible coalitions, subjects, tactics and strategies that they will use to attract voters. The parties are presented in the order determined by the number of seats held in the current legislature and by the electoral score gained in the last legislative elections held in 2010.
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Currently, the Communist Party of Moldova (PCRM) has an indistinct, even controversial image, especially because of the scandals inside the party. However, it has time to improve its image and has chances to win, in the November 30 elections, as many seats as in the elections of 2010. Experts Olga Nicolenco, Ion Tabarta and Denis Cenusa stated their views on the image and chances of the PCRM in the future elections.
Politologist Olga Nicolenco, expert in electoral strategies, considers that now the PCRM’s image is indefinite and vague owing to the chaotic actions and careless ideas. “The PCRM will be present in the future legislature, but, as in the current legislative body, it will be rather absent than present,” she stated.
Ion Tabarta, vice director of the Institute for Political Analysis and Consultancy “Politocon”, said the PCRM has a controversial image even if it has tough supporters who will definitely bring it a good score in elections. He does not believe that the PCRM would want or could form a coalition with another party in order to take part in the parliamentary elections. “In its history, the party never formed coalitions. Its image was affected by the revolts that happened inside it. I think the PCRM will win fewer seats or could repeat the success of 2010, but I don’t see how it could get more seats now,” said the expert.
Analyst Denis Cenusa noted that the image of the Communists is being redefined, because a group of people who represented a certain wing of the party, including the ideological one, was eliminated from the PCRM. “Before the campaign, the PCRM is making effort to review its image and it seems to me that it has sufficient time until the elections. The PCRM is a self-sufficient party that does not need bloc partners. Most probably, it will not propose to a party to form a bloc as it will definitely pass the election threshold. I think the PCRM can get the same number of seats or fewer as the persons who left the party joined other organizations and this can lead to a percentage reduction in the number of votes,” he stated.
Asked about the strong points of the PCRM, Olga Nicolenco mentioned the naïve devotion of many elderly people, the existence of united local organizations, which are disciplined even if they are fewer in number, the electoral symbols imprinted on the brain during centuries. Among the weak points is the fact that the PCRM has an invariable leader as presence and, implicitly, as performance. In plain words, from a once charismatic leader he became a fully confused leader. The weak points include also the absence of messages in any area and at any dimension and the lack of famous names in the future list of electioncandidates. The PCRM didn’t manage to become a competent, combative, conciliatory ad constructive opposition. It was unable to overcome the defeats and to raise up.
Referring to the weak and strong points of the Communists, Ion Tabarta said they have only one strong point – their leader Vladimir Voronin. Their weakest point is the fact that they have nobody else except Voronin.
Denis Cenusa said the PCRM, by its status of main opposition party, practically preserved the nucleus of voters and will obtain enough seats in elections to be able to influence the political life, this being the strong point. The weak point is the turbulences through which it went and continues to go following the recent defections of some of the members. The promises made by Communists while in the opposition didn’t have the result they desired. In particular, they demanded early elections, but were sure that they will achieve nothing. Their initiatives were populist in character and had the goal of maintaining the party in the public area, giving subjects to journalists and of not to being forgotten by the voters.
As to the issues that they can raise in the campaign and the strategies that they can use to attract more supporters, Olga Nicolenco said the PCRM will insist on social subjects, such as the schools and pensions, but it’s not yet clear what foreign policy course they will opt for. “Integration into the European Union or into the Customs Union? Who remembers all the geopolitical zigzags of the Communists?” asked the expert. Olga Nicolenco considers the Communist Party is traditionally successful in ensuring communication from person to person. In order to be more successful in elections, they must make known the list of candidates as soon as possible so that they people manage to know them.
Ion Tabarta believes the PCRM will address populist topics in the election campaign. “They will criticize the government and the European integration, but will insist on balancing the relations between the East and the West and will remind all the problems faced by Moldova over the last five years,” he stated.
Denis Cenusa considers the PCRM will continue to promote the negative image of the government, demonizing its image by harshly criticizing the governance results. Their main strategy will be to blame the government for what is going on in the country, including for the deterioration of the relations with Russia and the signing of the Association Agreement with the EU, which, according to the Communists, does not bring benefits. But they will also focus on the vulnerable acts of the government, such as the loss of the controlling interest in Banca de Economii (Savings Bank) and the leasing out of the Chisinau International Airport.
Mariana Galben, IPN
