Parliamentary elections of 2018: Gagauz demo version, OP-ED

The expert commission decided and the Government already approved the boundaries of the single-member constituencies in which half of the MPs will be elected in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Only did the ink on the Government decision dry and the unofficial election campaign immediately started in some of these constituencies. In this regard, the Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia distinguished itself and there is not much space for intrigue here. In Gagauzia, the “political temperature” has always been higher than the national average and the interparty subjects at the national level were traditionally made more complicated by the interests of regional political groups.


“Illogical” constituencies

Two constituencies were established on the territory of Gagauzia. The commission named them No. 45 and No. 46. The political leaders of the region openly expressed their dissatisfaction with such a decision. Everything was yet reduced to a series of protest statements. When it became clear that the authorities will not offer the region more than two constituencies, the local politicians accepted the rules of the game and focused on the preparations for the campaign. The protesting factor continued to exist yet. Thus, the public activists, who earlier pleaded for a larger number of constituencies, formulated their position through a call to boycott the parliamentary elections.

The debates on the main principles of establishing the electoral constituencies didn’t yet end here. When the commission presented the maps first, it became clear that the boundaries of constituencies cannot be logically explained. In particular, constituency No. 45 includes Comrat municipality, most of the villages of Comrat district and three villages of Ciadar-Lunga district. Constituency No.46 consists of Vulcanesti district, the other communities of Ciadar-Lunga district, including Ciadar-Lunga municipality, and two villages of Comrat district. Later, the commission’s decision was modified and two villages of Comrat district and a village of Ciadar-Lunga district were reincorporated into their districts. However, two communities – the villages Gaidar and Chiriet-Lunga of Ciadar-Lunga district - remained components of constituency No 45. Moreover, Gaidar village does not have a common border with Comrat district and remains actually an enclave as part of another constituency.

The commission’s decision cannot be said to be based on the territorial-demographic factor. In the final version, the difference between the number of voters in constituencies No. 45 and No. 46 represented 4,386 people at a time when there is a much more delicate solution when the usual administrative boundaries can be kept with a minimum difference between the number of voters of 600 persons.

Accidentally or not, Gaidar village, which in the elections will be “tied” to a foreign district, is the native place of current Socialist MP Fiodor Gagauz. He is the first of the Gagauz politicians who officially confirmed his intention to run in elections. The problem is that his native village and a part of Ciadar-Lunga district form his electoral basis. The commission’s decision brought him face to face with a dilemma: to run in the constituency where he benefits from favorable conditions and renounce the support of the co-villagers or to run in another constituency where the situation at district level will be much more difficult against the resource of his native village.

It is not known if the Party of Socialists (PSRM) will support Fiodor Gagauz. The Socialists have many persons on their list of candidates for the upcoming legislative elections, but the name of their current representative on the Gagauz legislature was not put on it.

Position of PSRM

Taking into account the publications of the local press, the social activism and the reports in party media outlets, the direct or indicate support of the PSRM in the upcoming elections would be enjoyed by the current deputy chairman of the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia (in constituency No. 45) Aleksandr Suhodolski, deputy of the PAG on behalf of Copceac village Nicolai Dragan and deputy on behalf of Vulcanesti town Grigory Uzun (both in constituency No. 46). First vice governor of Gagauzia Vadim Ceban is a distinct figure who could run in elections. He does not take part in party activities and formally is not a member of the PSRM, but his older experience of working at the Ministry of Economy under the guidance of Igor Dodon makes us believe that the relations between these were maintained and can be manifested by supporting Ceban in the parliamentary elections.

The leader of the Vulcanesti district party organization Roman Tiutin for a long period of time had been mentioned as a future candidate of the PSRM. He is a close colleague of Governor Irina Vlah and manages the Youth and Sport Division of the Executive Committee of Gagauzia. Several months ago, he was hiding from the law enforcement bodies, but was nevertheless convicted based on a Penal Code article. The Socialists are convinced that the Democratic Party (PDM) is behind this scenario and this party this way deals with the political opponents. Irina Vlah shares this viewpoint. She publicly defended the member of her team. Amway, Tiutin is now reportedly abroad and the participation in elections is rather difficult for him.

Position of PDM

The Socialists will face competition from the candidates supported by the PDM. The Democrats, even if it may seem strange, have many potential candidates with chances of winning. These include the current Democratic MPs Cornel Dudnic (who will most probably run in constituency No. 46), Demian Caraseni and Nicolai Dudoglo (constituency No. 45). There are also a series of candidates close to the PDM, who can run in elections for auxiliary purposes – to disperse the voters and to attract votes from opponents, to legalize the elections if the boycotting idea is popular. The high anti-rating of the PDM is the key problem of these candidates. Apparently, it will be solved by fielding independent candidates and by using administrative resources, no matter how inconsistent this may seem.

We should not look for too many examples as to how the future parliamentary elections will look like. The experience of the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia, the way in which the elections were held and its elected composition ultimately represent an eventual demo version of the future developments in Moldova. In a year we should expect frauds reported by observers as committed by a number of election runners and selective justice, “independent” candidates and post-electoral political “comings-out” and other surprising stories about the formation of the “ruling majority”.