Origins of decline of pro-European course: between polls and Moldovan realities

Op-Ed
	The multiple frauds committed by the pretended pro-European forces and the EU’s hesitation to criticize as well as the pressure exerted by Russia affected the EU’s image in Moldova. The erosion of the public perception of the EU cannot be yet stopped...
Dionis Cenuşa

The results of the poll commissioned by the International Republican Institute revealed the latest developments related to the geopolitical aspirations of Moldova. In general, the survey confirms the negative trends connected with the diminution of the support for the professed pro-European parties and the deepening of the EU’s image crisis.

However, the survey presents the radiography of the spirit that dominates in society in a very difficult moment, when the economic crisis that is in the process of crystallization intersects with the political and institutional crises. The response rate of 62% imposes a particular margin of interpretation so that the real perception of the people could be more positive or, on the contrary, more negative.

People penalize artificiality of pretended pro-European parties

The popularity deficit of the pro-European forces that apportioned the monopoly on the political power in 2009-2015 makes their presence in the legislative body after the next parliamentary elections impruuuuuuobable. This is due to the broader acknowledgement of the fact that the pro-European reforms were simulated, while in multiple cases even mutilated. Also, the decline in polls of the false pro-Europeans, which was more evident recently, could have been caused by the increased skepticism of the Europeans. After the discovery of the frauds committed in the banking system and the ascertaining of the ‘complications’ faced by the politicians of the pro-EU coalitions, the Europeans’ confidence in the capacity of the declared pro-European parties to implement reforms decreased considerably and irremediably. Thus, according to the poll, the PDM, PL and, especially, the PLDM will face major difficulties in passing the election threshold. (See Table 1)

The capital is more pro-European than the rest of Moldova

The poll shows the population of Chisinau is apparently more pro-European compared with the national average. This can be deducted from the sympathies with the most popular politicians of the country, whose geopolitical views are presented to the general public. Thus, Maia Sandu, Iurie Leanca and Dorin Chirtoaca, seen in association with the EU, are more powerfully supported in the capital city by the pro-Russian politicians – Renato Usatyi and Igor Dodon. Even if the latter have a lower number of supporters in Chisinau, they top the rankings of favorites in regions. (See Table 2) However, as the survey shows, about 30-40% of the people also do not sympathize with the political leaders considered pro-European and with those with pro-Russian views.

European values versus economic interest 

The poll reveals a very weak devotion of the people to democracy without which the EU and the European integration are unconceivable. So, most of the people consider that democracy is less significant than the economic prosperity. (See Table 3)
 

Thus, a part of the people do not realize that the economic prosperity is impossible without the good functioning of the democratic institutions. Evidently, this attitude derives from the disappointment of a part of society with most of the political parties elected democratically, which pursued own and group goals when they came to power (1991-2009). This equally explains the regret of a part of society at the disappearance of the USSR. (See Table 4)
 

Moreover, the role of democracy diminished following the failure of the coalition governments (2009-2015), when the state institutions became hostage of the apportioning equations endorsed by the pretended pro-European forces controlled by different oligarchic groups. Moreover, these used and continue to use the EU flags to protect their political and economic ‘monopolies’.

At the same time, the erroneous perception of the importance of democracy could be the result of the active promotion of authoritarian government models in the region, in particular of the Russian political regime. This thing also points to the efficiency of the Russian propaganda that promotes ‘Russian-type’ democracy, where the opposition is marginalized, the elections are rigged, while the mass media are controlled by the ruling party (with small exceptions).

The political context in the country and the regional context (military conflict in Ukraine provoked by Russia, the crises in the EU) could favor deeper indifference to democracy in the European neighborhood, in particular in the Eastern Partnership. This disillusion can generate additional difficulties in doing the pro-European reforms that are often simulated by the Moldovan political forces and that are not wanted by Russia, including the change of the foreign course.

EU versus Eurasian Economic Union

The opinions about the integrationist projects in the region are divided. Though the European integration provides evident advantages, the multiple frauds committed by the declared pro-European forces and the EU’s hesitation as well as the pressure exerted by Russia affected the EU’s image in Moldova. Even if the EU Delegation to Moldova intensified communication, becoming simultaneously more critical and trenchant, the erosion of the public perception of the EU cannot be yet stopped. Thus, despite the substantial contribution made by the Europeans, many continue to put a lot of trust in Russia, especially in the economic sector. (See Table 5)
 

The positive attitude to Russia remains at the same level even if this introduced commercial barriers against the Moldovan producers starting with September 2013, favoring afterward, in a discriminatory way, only the producers from Gagauzia and the Transnistrian region. Though the decision to impose the bans depends unilaterally on Russia, some of the people (especially from rural areas) also blame the Moldovan authorities and the EU too. (See Table 6)
 

The confusions about the role and real impact of the EU on Moldova, determined by the transfer of negative image from the so-called pro-European parties, the Russian propaganda and the misinformation propagated by the supporters of the Eurasian course in Moldova, conditions the diminution of the support for the EU among Moldovans.  (See Table 7)
 

Instead of conclusion…

The Moldovans’ perception of the EU worsened considerably owing to internal political factors, the toleration by the EU of false pro-European coalitions and Russian’s actions. The remedying of the situation depends a lot on the quality of the communication instruments used by the EU and on the changes on the Moldovan political arena. In this regard, the appearance of an authentic pro-European political alternative that would replace the discredited pro-EU forces would create preconditions for restoring the EU’s image. However, the Europeans will have to learn from the mistakes made in the past and should become more demanding, principled and objective towards any government in Moldova. 

Dionis Cenuşa

IPN publishes in the Op-Ed rubric opinion pieces submitted by authors not affiliated with our editorial board. The opinions expressed in these articles do not necessarily coincide with the opinions of our editorial board.