The Soviet Union began to collapse in the 1970s-1980s, but it was only in 1990 that it disintegrated, and the Republic of Moldova emerged as a state on the ruins of a destroyed system. Veaceslav Ioniță, economic expert with the IDIS Viitorul think-tank, looks at several numbers that describe Moldova as we celebrate 32 years of independence.
The first is Moldova’s population, which in 1991 was 4.3 million, including 3.6 million on the right side of the Nistru and about 700,000 on the left one. Today, 2.8 million people remain in the country, including 2.5 million are on the right bank and about 300,000 in the breakaway region of Transnistria. “In these 32 years, the population of the Republic of Moldova has decreased by 1.5 million inhabitants, including 1.1 million on the right bank of the Nistru alone. Meaning a third of the population vanished. There is no other country that has such a dramatic situation as regards massive migration”, says Veaceslav Ioniță.
Regarding employees and pensioners, the expert says that in 1991 there were about 1.5 million employees and 582,000 pensioners. Today there are 628,000 employees and 525,000 pensioners. The number of employees decreased continuously to 598,000 in 2010. By 2019, the number of employees increased slightly to 625,000. At the same time, whereas in 1991 there were three employees to one pensioner, today the ratio is one pensioner to one employee.
In 1991, the average wage nationwide was 434 rubles. From 1995 to 2004, the average salary was about the same on both banks of the Nistru. From 2004 to 2015, the average salary grew faster in the separatist region than on the right side. In 2020, it reached 7,900 lei on the right side, and on the left side, after their artificially supported currency depreciated, the average salary fell to 5,200 lei, or 1,100 lei less than in 2015. In 2023, the average salary predicted for the right side is 12,400 lei, and 7,000 lei for the left one.
In 2023, Moldovans are estimated to earn a total 215 billion lei, from 169 billion lei two years ago. In 1991, the population of Moldova earned 10.4 billion rubles, equivalent to 158 billion lei today. While Moldovans’ salaries increased twice in size, their incomes grew only 1.4 times. “The number of employees plummeted. The pension today unfortunately is much lower. In 1991, the pension was higher because more people were working and contributing. Granted, there was no income from remittances or other sources. It is certain that if the average salary in 2023 reaches the level of 2021, even if inflation is contained, the income will be 7% lower than in 2021. Today’s money is worth by about 7% less than the money in 2021”, explains the expert.
In 1995, Moldova’s industrial output was valued at 4.3 billion rubles (116 billion lei). In 2023, it is estimated at 85 billion lei. “After 32 years of independence we still have not reached the industrial output of 1991. In the last 18 years, industrial production has grown by an average of 0.6% annually. We need another 50 years to reach the level of 1991. Without a new development paradigm, Moldova will not be able to change much”, says Veaceslav Ioniță.
As for gross agricultural output, it was 65 billion lei in 2021, comparable to the level of 1991, when it was 66 billion lei. Because 2022 was a dry year, and 2023 will not be too good either, agricultural output will be estimated this year at 44 billion lei.
