Moldova’s recent election and referendum reaffirmed its unwavering commitment to a European future. Despite Russian interference, including vote-buying, cyberattacks, and bomb threats, pro-European candidate Maia Sandu secured a clear victory, reflecting consistent domestic and diaspora support. But a danger lurks around the corner, which should make Brussels wake up.
Presidential election in Moldova were held on the 20th of October, with a runoff on the 3rd of November. Incumbent Pro-European President Maia Sandu, who won the first round, and former Prosecutor General Alexandr Stoianoglo, who was the runner-up, contested the runoff, with Sandu with an 11% margin, winning a majority of votes and being re-elected for a second and final term.
The election has been described as a choice between the West and Russia, with Sandu representing the pro-European side and Stoianoglo the Russian-friendly side. On the same day as the first round of the election, a referendum was held where a majority of Moldovans voted "yes" to add the desire for EU membership to the country's constitution. The results in both the presidential election and the referendum highlight Moldova's steady EU aspirations despite economic and geopolitical pressures, but the result in the referendum was closer than expected.
A staggering level of interference from Russia sought to sway Moldova’s vote. Law enforcement uncovered a vote-buying scheme involving approximately 10% of voters, with at least 138,000 people using a sanctioned Russian bank’s app to receive cash transfers from Russia in exchange for their votes. This interference, combined with bomb threats at a dozen overseas polling stations and cyberattacks aiming to suppress the diaspora vote, reflects Russia’s heavy-handed tactics to disrupt Moldova’s democratic choice
But so far so good. Despite an extremely challenging economic landscape, Moldovans maintained their support for Maia Sandu and a European future. But around the corner a danger lurks.
Moldova stands at a crucial juncture ahead of its upcoming parliamentary election next year. While the nation’s pro-European trajectory was reaffirmed in the presidential election, the parliamentary contest presents a deeper challenge, with risks that could tilt the balance toward instability and foreign influence. The pro-Russian opposition, bolstered by networks loyal to Moscow, sees an opportunity in this potential voter fatigue. Russia’s efforts to sway Moldovan politics are well-documented - from vote-buying schemes involving cash transfers via sanctioned Russian banks to cyberattacks and propaganda campaigns. In a parliamentary election, where margins are often narrower, even modest changes in turnout can shift the balance of power.
The upcoming parliamentary election will determine whether Moldova’s European aspirations can be translated into actionable reforms. A pro-European majority is essential to advancing justice reform, economic modernization, and safeguarding against hybrid threats from Russia. Without it, Moldova risks legislative gridlock or, worse, a reversal of its European trajectory.
The stakes are not just domestic but geopolitical. Moldova's position as a pro-European democracy on Russia’s doorstep makes it a symbolic battleground in the larger East-West divide. A weakened pro-European government would embolden Moscow’s strategy of exploiting vulnerabilities in Europe’s periphery.
Furthermore, efforts to counter Russian interference must be redoubled. Transparent electoral processes, robust cybersecurity measures, and international monitoring can help mitigate external manipulation. At the same time, pro-European parties must address voter fatigue by presenting compelling, results-oriented platforms that resonate with citizens’ immediate concerns, such as inflation, energy costs, and employment.
The upcoming parliamentary election is not just another political contest; it is a decisive moment for Moldova’s democracy. The stakes are high, and the time to act is now.
This should also be a wake-up call for Brussels to commit more to Moldova's future. Otherwise, the EU risks having a country totally controlled by Russia between the EU and Ukraine. It’s time for the EU to act:
- The Growth Plan Regulation for Moldova should be adopted swiftly, without delays or bureaucratic hurdles, and with an improved balance between grants and loans.
- Immediate support must be provided to citizens to help them navigate the winter and withstand Russian energy blackmail.
- Tangible progress on Moldova’s European path must be demonstrated by opening accession clusters and formally launching membership negotiations. This is not an advance, but a recognition of the achievements already made.
European leaders also need to actively engage with Moldovans living abroad and visit Moldova, particularly its most vulnerable towns and villages, to share first-hand experiences of the EU’s benefits. It’s essential to connect the EU project in Moldova with recognizable and influential European figures. Currently, Moldovans often fail to associate the EU with prominent leaders, whereas the Kremlin has successfully promoted well-known personalities aligned with its interests in the region.
BJÖRN SÖDER (SD)
Member of the Swedish Parliament and
Head of the Swedish delegation to the OSCE PA
MARKUS WIECHEL (SD)
Member of the Swedish Parliament,
Head of the Swedish delegation to the PACE
and member of the Swedish delegation to the OSCE PA